Week 7 – Start, Bench, and Waiver

Byes: Chicago, Baltimore, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tennessee

Start
Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets – NYJ/Detroit is going to be one heck of an offensive shootout. I can’t imagine both teams not scoring 30 each. Pennington is near-2002 form this season. Just imagine what he’d do if the Jets actually had a run game! Detroit has allowed a league high 13 pass TDs this season; expect at least two more this week.
Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona – After his performance last week against the league’s #1 defense (AND without his #1 WR in Larry Fitzgerald), how can you not start him? Boldin and Johnson can still hold their own. Considering Grossman, Brees, and Bulger are all on byes, Leinart is a safe start.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants – Manning has 11 TDs through 5 games this season. Interesting stats: 3 of his 7 INTs came in one game against the Seahawks. Dallas is middle of the road against the pass, but Eli has 8 of this 11 TDs on the road. I like Eli as well as Plaxico Burress this week. Burress should see 80 yards and a score.
Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville – Leftwich is going to have a ton of time in the pocket. He’s behind one of the league’s best offensive lines and he’s facing quite possibly the league’s worst defensive lines. The Texans pass defense is horrible.
Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville – Anybody facing Houston is a must start. Houston is 29^th against the run and Taylor is doing well, considering he’s splitting time with Maurice Jones-Drew.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami – Green Bay is middle of the road in terms of rush defense, but they’ve allowed one TD per game on the ground. With Harrington being inconsistent, I like Brown’s chances, especially considering the amount of carries he’ll get this week.
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit – The Jets rush defense is pathetic; 12 TDs in 6 games. Jones is the perfect flex back this week as he already has set career highs for number of receptions and receiving yards in a season. Jones has 4 TDs through 6 games and should pound out another two on the ground this week.
Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh – Parker is a must start this week. Look at what Tiki did last week against the Falcons; 185 yards on the ground. Parker is a big play back who has a better offensive line. Parker could see 130 yards and 2 scores in this contest before Davenport starts getting the bulk of the carries.
Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona – I know, I said that it’s time to cut bait with Edge…but he’s going to have ONE 100+ yard day this season…and it’s going to come this week. Oakland has been torched for nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Edge finally shows he was worth the money he was paid, but unfortunately for Arizona, it’ll be the only time this season he proves his worth.
Deion Branch, WR, Seattle – Deion Branch on Fred Smoot…I’m taking Branch. I think Branch will have a big day, possibly 100 yards. With Alexander out and being replaced by Maurice Morris, the Seahawks will throw 35+ times. Branch had a big week last week and I look for that trend to continue.
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo – Lee Evans is a must start because of how often Losman targets him. Buffalo is facing a tough NE team, but the weakness is their secondary. I expect Losman to have a rough day, but when Buffalo goes to their hurry up, short pass game, Evans gets a ton of catches. Evans should catch 8-10 balls in this game for 85+ yards and a score.
Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay – Jennings is a big play WR. I absolutely love this guy’s potential. Jennings has had two 100 yard games and scored in three of his last four games. Miami may only allow 170 passing yards per game, but they’ve given up 10 TDs in six games.
Wes Welker, WR, Miami – Chris Chambers will have a big day, but he’ll have to earn everything he gets by being matched up on Al Harris. Welker will be open quite a bit because McMichael will be a threat over the middle and Chambers will be commanding safety help on nearly every pass. I like Welker’s chances for a near 100 yard day. Green Bay is dead last in pass defense.
Randy McMichael, TE, Miami – Green Bay hasn’t covered TEs well this season, as they have a huge matchup problem with McMichael matching up on Brady Poppinga, who has been awful in coverage. Harrington has been looking for McMichael more and more in games, especially to sustain drives toward the latter part of the game.
Josh Brown, K, Seattle – Brown has been one of the hottest kickers this season. Seattle should be settling for quite a few FGs, as Minnesota has a solid defense, especially their run defense.
Arizona, DEF – If your main defense is on a bye (Chicago or Baltimore namely), you’re probably looking for a one week replacement D. Arizona’s your pick. Do I honestly have to go through Oakland’s lack of offense right now?

Bench
JP Losman, QB, Bills – New England’s pass defense is barely average. Sure, they’ve only allowed 4 passing TDs and they only have 12 sacks in 5 games, but they’re better than they seem. New England had a rough start last season and finished strong, just as they’re doing this year. Losman is too inconsistent to risk here.
Michael Vick, QB, Atlanta – Vick isn’t a good fantasy starter, unless he’s playing the Texans; he’s just that inconsistent. If a team can control Vick, they can control the Falcon offense. The Steelers will easily do that this week.
Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay -- Favre should have a few big connections to Greg Jennings, but you better start up the INT counter, because Favre's going to throw another two this week. Against Miami, who has solid corners and linebackers, Favre is definately not the QB you want starting.
Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo – New England is going to own Buffalo this week. McGahee has been struggling and so has Buffalo, especially after managing a whopping 17 points against a bad Detroit defense. New England is holding opponents to less than 86 rushing yards per game and less than 1 TD per game. After the way McGahee struggled against Detroit last weekend, it’s safe to keep him on the bench.
Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle – Morris managed less than 3.0 yards per carry against a 23^rd ranked St. Louis rush defense. Minnesota is allowing less than 75 yards per game and less than 1 TD per game on the ground.
Reuben Droughns, RB, Cleveland – Droughns, when healthy, has been decent. However, the Denver defense has allowed one rushing TD over five games. Don’t bet Droughns here, or you’ll be extremely disappointed.
Tiki Barber, RB, New York Giants – Tiki’s coming off an eye-popping week against the Falcons. Don’t expect the same against Dallas, who leads the league in rush defense. Dallas has allowed four rushing TDs in five games, but they’re holding opponents to less than 2.9 yards per carry. Tiki should be happy if he breaks 100 yards. He’s still scoreless, too.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston – Johnson on Rashean Mathis is going to be an awesome matchup. David Carr is going to be harassed all day long, which isn’t good for Johnson. Look for Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy to see most of the action and Eric Moulds will be more involved than usual.
Hines Wards, WR, Pittsburgh – Ward will turn his slow season around, but definitely not this week against DeAngelo Williams. Williams shut down Plaxico Burress last week and held a big part of the Giants’ offense to 4 catches for 44 yards.
Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Carolina – Johnson stepped up when Steve Smith was out with a hamstring injury, but since then, he’s done little. Steve Smith IS the Carolina offense. Other WRs will get more looks and have more potential.
Amani Toomer, WR, New York Giants -- Toomer has had one amazing game this season, otherwise, he's been terrible. Toomer is just waisting space on your bench and will be the luckiest WR in the NFL if he ever sees 137 yards or two TDs against this season. With Toomer, it’s time to cut bait.
Alge Crumpler, TE, Falcons – Pittsburgh has a good defense and has done a great job at containing TEs this season (see week 6 when Tony Gonzalez was limited to 3 catches for 15 yards). With Vick being inconsistent and Pittsburgh having a very good defense, Crumpler should be on the bench this week.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland – Don’t bet against the Broncos defense. Charlie Frye will be lucky to get the ball off this week and will probably spend more time on the ground than under center. This is a bad, bad matchup.
Neil Rackers, K, Cardinals – Neil has blown two games this season for the Cards; a last second FG to send the Cards into OT against the Cheifs and a game winning FG against the 6-0 Bears for he biggest upset of the season.
Cincinnati, DEF – The Panthers offense is explosive with Steve Smith. The Panthers scored 23 on Baltimore. Cincinnati has been struggling, losing to the Bucs last week. Cincinnati should give up good field position to Carolina, who will be eager to take advantage.

Waiver
Joey Harrington, QB, Miami – If there’s one thing I know about Harrington, from being a die-hard Lions fan, is that he will have an amazing week surrounded by 4 horrid weeks. This could be the week as he faces a league worst Green Bay pass defense.
Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks – Seattle will run the ball against the Bears. Seattle has a plethora of good WRs, but their OL has to fend off the best front 7 in the league. I think Holmgren will be running the ball and Morris will get good numbers for a backup.
Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks – It’s possible he’s lingering around the waiver someplace. Branch is starting now and is sure to put up decent numbers.
Bryant Johnson, WR, Cardinals – With Fitzgerald out, Johnson has a chance to step up. Leinart has shown that he looks for Johnson as much as Boldin or Fitzgerald. Johnson is currently the best waiver wire pickup, in my opinion.
Eric Parker, WR, San Deigo – Parker is getting an increased number of looks every week. I like Parker simply because he’s in a balance offense that spreads the ball around, however, LDT still gets the goal line shots.
Doug Gabriel, WR, New England – Gabriel should have a good day against a struggling Buffalo defense. New England spreads the ball around and Gabriel is a lock to have ~70 receiving yards and quite possibly a score. Nice W/R flex player.
Mercedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars – Lewis will see an increased role this week in the offense, as Matt Jones still has some lingering effects from his groin injury. Lewis was drafted to be a nice safety valve for Leftwich, like Gates is in San Deigo. Lewis should evolve into a nice waiver pickup in the next few weeks.