Tuesday, August 14, 2007

With the first five picks (and beyond) in the 2007 FF draft...

photoAugust is one of the best times for fantasy football owners, you are still undefeated and you get to put together your own championship team. At least you have dreams of a championship. It is critically important not to make a mistake with your first round pick as you need a high production level to compete with the other top picks in the draft. Here is one fantasy football geek's ranking to help guide you through the first five picks should you select that high:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
The easiest pick in the draft. LT had a career year in 2006 with over 1,800 yards rushing and a whooping 28 rushing TDs. That alone was almost enough to make him the FF MVP and the co-MVP of the league. LT lacks the questions of other top tier backs and his versitility sets him apart from the field. Add in 56 catches for 500+ receiving yards and three more scores through the air. LT is also capable of a 100 reception year as he proved in 2003. Lets also not forget that LT had a 125 passer rating with two touchdowns, which is actually quite pedistrian for the former Horned Frog who has a career passer rating of 152. If you get the first pick in the draft, time to start worrying about who your second pick in the draft will be because their is no question about the first pick.

2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
You could make the argument for three players at this pick with Larry Johnson and Sean Alexander both worthy of consideration. Jackson, however, has youth on his side entering just his fourth year and he is a key cog in an explosive offense that returns all their key pieces and actually added more in the offseason. Jackson's carries have increased each year from 134 to 254 to 346 last year. His 1,500+ yards rushing and 13 rushing TDs last season vaulted him into the "stud" category. His league leading 90 catches for a RB for 800+ yards and another three scores push him into the elite category and right behind LT.

3. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
LJ is the big risk big reward pick in the draft. The good news is he is still young just entering his fifth year in the league and has posted back-to-back 1,700+ rushing yard and 17+ TD seasons. He will also get involved in the passing game with 410 yards last season along with another two scores. The bad news is that Johnson is holding out so far, Priest Holmes is back in camp, his 416 carries last year signal troubles, and his supporting cast is a big question mark heading into the season. With Trent Green gone, teams will load up in the box to stop LJ. With G Will Shields no longer around, the holes LJ is used to just won't be there anymore.

4. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
I was personally surprised when I ranked my RBs and Gore came in at number four, albiet in a virtual dead heat with Sean Alexander. Gore's breakout 2006 season included 1,695 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He added almost 500 more yards receiving and another score. He is entering just his third season so age/punishment is not a facor. The 49ers did lose offensive coordinator Norv Turner, which is a concern. But QB Alex Smith's career, also entering his third season, is on the upswing and he has more weapons (such as WR Darrell Jackson) than ever which will take some of the attention off of Gore. The niners finished 2006 strong and

5. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Given that Alexander had 28 scores just two seasons ago and lead the Seahawks into the Super Bowl makes it tough to rank him as just the fifth best back in the 2007 fantasy draft. But Alexander has a few question marks that drop his status. First, he turns the dreaded 30 to start the season. Second, he missed six games last year with an injured foot. After losing star G Steve Hutchinson last year, his yards-per-carrry average plummeted to just 3.6. Alexander had never averaged below four yard in any of his first six seasons including a 5.1 average in 2005. Alexander and Johnson are the biggest risks among the top five draft picks given all their question marks.

After the top five the FF world becomes even more cloudy. While I'm a two-stud RB kind of guy, I think serious consideration has to be made for Peyton Manning at pick number six depending on league scoring rules. The difference between my sixth ranked RB and tenth is minimal. Other running backs to consider in the top ten include two second year players who both become their teams unquestioned top backs, Joseph Addai of the Colts and Laurance Maroney of the Patriots. Both proved to be capable runners last year and play on potent offenses. Steady and productive veterans make up the rest of the top ten which includes Brian Westbrook of the Eagles, Rudi Johnson of the Bengals, and Willie Parker of the Steelers. Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins I have ranked as just outside of the top ten. After the those backs you will be looking at plyayers who have switched teams, players in the nightmare running-back-by-committee systems, players who are coming off of injuries, and backs who have yet to prove they can carry the load.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Terrific breakdown here. I like what you say about Manning. I'm picking 11th next week and he would be hard to pass up if he falls that far.

Hope you'll be posting frequently now that the season is set to start.

We just started a FF blog you might like. Check it out through the profile if you're interested.