Saturday, November 18, 2006

Week 11 -- Start and Bench


START
QB
Tom Brady,
New England (at Green Bay) – Brady’s last two starts have results in a combined 45/72 for 456 yards, 1 TD, and 4 INTs. Brady’s been making a lot of mistakes and forcing the ball, but he won’t against Green Bay’s 31st ranked pass defense. Anyone matching up on Al Harris is in for a rough day, but Brady should be finding those #2 and #3 guys all day.
Matt Leinart, Arizona (Detroit) – Detroit’s allowing QBs to throw for a whopping 68.5% completion rating. This game all depends on Detroit’s ability to get pressure without James Hall and Shaun Rogers. If they can rattle Leinart early on, they should have an easy day, otherwise, Leinart will be threading the needle and both Boldin and Fitzgerald (hamstring) will have huge days (Fitzgerald, if healthy).
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay (Washington) – Washington has allowed nearly four league-worst passing defense stats this season: yards (2198), TDs allowed (18), INTs (2), sacks (13). Gradkowski is a decent QB who has put up decent stats on the season, especially for being a rookie.
Steve McNair, Baltimore (Baltimore) – McNair has been putting up decent stats, but he’s making a lot of mistakes and been playing against some bad pass defenses. Atlanta has a secondary that’s in terrible shape (allowing 273 passing yards per game and 11 TDs in the past five games).

RB
Thomas Jones, Chicago
(at NY Jets) – The Jets are terrible against the run, giving up 4.5 ypc and 13 TDs on the season. The Bears have gotten back to that run game to control the clock, which is what they’re all about. Jones will go for around 100 yards and at least one TD, with Benson getting some garbage time.
Anthony Thomas, Buffalo (at Houston) – Thomas has a ton of talent, as evidenced by his 243 yards and 2 TDs since McGahee’s injury. Thomas is looking to steal the spotlight and make people forget about McGahee, while he’s out with injury; plus, the Texans are as bad as the Jets when it comes to defending the run.
Julius Jones, Dallas (Indianapolis) – Anyone facing Indy’s rush D is a definite start. Here’s the stats: 159 yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry, 10 TDs, and 77 first downs. Those numbers are incredible...for opposing rushers. Jones is a great talent and should tear it up this week.
Warrick Dunn, Atlanta (at Baltimore) – Last week with Ray Lewis out, Travis Henry rushed for over 100 yards. Dunn is a better back and on a much better team than Henry and has been dormant for awhile. Atlanta needs to rely on the run this week and Vick will get eaten alive by Baltimore’s top pass defense. Dunn should get 22-24 carries.

W/R
Ladell Betts, Washington (at Tampa Bay) – With Portis out, Betts is going to see a ton of action. He’s done extremely well at the beginning of the season when Portis was injured. Betts generally sees a lot of catches (4 last week after filling in when Portis went down), so he’d be a perfect flex back this week against a struggling Tampa Bay secondary and rush defense that are equally bad.
DeShaun Foster, Carolina (at St Louis) – St Louis has been awful against the run this year, allowing 143.3 yards per game on 5.1 yard per carry and a total of 10 TDs on the ground this year. Carolina will look to limit mistakes against the Rams solid secondary and feed both Foster and DeAngelo Williams.

WR
Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay
(Washington) – Normally, I’d bench Galloway due to his inconsistency and the fact he’s prone to laying eggs in games he’s expected to due well in. Washington has a terrible pass defense and doesn’t seem to be able to get pressure on the QB in any way, shape, or form, so I believe Gradkowski will have a lot of time to throw and Galloway will have time to get open.
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland (Pittsburgh) – Edwards has scored in the past two weeks and is facing a Steelers’ secondary who gave up 398 yards and 1 TD to the Saints, 232 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs to the Falcons, and 227 yards and 3 TDs to the Broncos; all in the past four weeks. Edwards will have to bear the load as it’s inevitable that Droughns will do anything on the ground and Winslow could easily be shut down. The Steelers have allowed less than 10 yards to TEs since Crumpler torched them for 117 yards and 3 TDs in week 7.
Javon Walker, Denver (San Diego) -- Walker has averaged 5.3 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown, along with a 72-yard run for a touchdown in one game, over the past month. In that same time, San Diego has allowed opposing receivers to accumulate 13 receptions for 201 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. It doesn’t help when Chad Johnson goes 11 catches and 260 yards on you. Plummer should have additional time to throw with Shawn Merriman still serving his ‘roids suspension.
Donte' Stallworth, Philadelphia (Tennessee) -- For the first time since week 2, Stallworth has been healthy and is showing it with 6 grabs for 139 yards and a score. The Titans also have their fair share of pass defense problems. Over the past month, Tennessee has allowed opposing receivers to snag 13 grabs for 169 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per outing. That’s big days for Stallworth, Brown, Smith, and Westbrook.

TE
Antonio Gates, San Deigo
(at Denver) – If you have Gates, you’re probably starting every week. However, I see a big game in the future for Gates, as Denver will be dead set on shutting down Tomlinson. San Deigo’s wide receivers are nothing special and should draw single coverage, but once Gates starts drawing that safety coverage, the WRs will threaten. Gates should act as a decoy quite a bit in this game as well as a huge part of the actual pass catching offense.

K
Jason Hanson, Lions
(at Arizona) -- I do believe this will be an offensive shootout in the desert. Arizona’s defense shows up when they feel like it and can’t match up with Detroit’s personnel. Hanson will get more than a couple FG chances and makes the most of them, as he’s #13 on the all-time scoring list.

DEF
Miami (at Minnesota) – The Vikings offense has looked terrible in the past few weeks, putting up a measly three points on a barely average San Fran defense. As well, the ‘Phins have held the Bears and the Chiefs to a combined 23 points over the past two weeks; don’t bet on Brad Johnson to get the offense rolling.

BENCH
QB
Eli Manning, NY Giants
(at Jacksonville) – Eli had an awful week last week and has failed to throw for over 200 yards since week 5. Jacksonville has a very good defense and this should be up to the Jags and how well Garrard can move the ball through the air. The Jags got lit up by the Texans once again, but look for a big rebound this week.
Trent Green, Kansas City (Oakland) – Trent Green has historically been a good QB, but pulling Damon Huard for a rusty Green (who hasn’t played in 9 weeks) is just a terrible move. Oakland has an excellent pass defense and did a great job against Denver last week. Oh yeah, without Gonzo, Green will struggle even more.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (at Cleveland) – Big Ben faces an underrated Browns defense that has limited him to two touchdown passes in three career meetings. Despite a secondary ravaged by injury, only four teams have allowed fewer passing yards or TDs than the Browns. The last quarterback to throw for multiple scores against them was Carson Palmer in week 2, and Steve McNair's 264-yard outing the following week was the last time anyone took Cleveland for more than 211 yards in the air.
Philip Rivers, San Diego (at Denver) – Rivers has been what Big Ben was last season, efficient; throwing for over 2000 yards, 66% completion rating, 13 TDs, and only 3 INTs so far on the season. However, I don’t like his chances against one of the league’s best defenses. Denver has allowed league lows in passing and rushing TDs, but they’ll have their hands full. Rivers has a very quick release, but Denver has a very quick group of linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties, who are all experienced and make very quick reads.

RB
Chester Taylor, Minnesota (at Miami) – Miami’s defense has been playing great lately, holding the Bears and Chiefs to 23 total combined points. Just look at the job Miami did on Larry Johnson last week, holding one of the league’s best to 75 rushing yards. Taylor will be without Tony Richardson to pave the way, so he’ll be in for an even tougher challenge.
Jamal Lewis, Ravens (Atlanta) When Brian Billick took over play calling duties, most expect Lewis to benefit and regain his 2003 form. Well, just look at his performance last week against a terrible Tennessee run defense (16 rushes 45 yards). I think we may see Mike Anderson and Musa Smith a lot more in the coming weeks if Lewis continues to lay eggs.
Ronnie Brown, Miami (Minnesota) – Ronnie Brown hasn’t been what he was last season. For being drafted so highly in fantasy drafts, he’s been awful this season. He’s just starting to get his 20+ touch games, but he won’t this week. Minnesota is dominating opposing rushers, holding them to 2.9 yard per carry and 66 yards per game.
Ahman Green, Green Bay (New England) – I shouldn’t have drafted Green, who has a rookie OG and OT blocking for him, and neither should you. Unfortunately, Green’s luck won’t change this week as the Packers will try to expose a Harrinson and Wilson-less Pats secondary and should run the ball very little, especially considering the Pats are #3 in the league in rush defense.

WR
Drew Bennett, Tennessee
(at Philadelphia) – Bennett is quickly becoming Vince Young’s go-to guy, hauling in 6 grabs for 116 yards last week alone. However, he faces an Eagles pass defense that’s 8th in the league and matching up on Lito Sheppard will be a tough matchup. I like Bennett, but I don’t like his chances on Vince Young having a successful day getting the ball to him.
Plaxico Burress, NY Giants (at Jacksonville) – I don’t like Manning this week, meaning I surely don’t like Plax either. Jacksonville has allowed exactly one touchdown pass on its home turf this season, and when you couple that stingy defense with Eli’s road struggles, it’s playing with fire by starting Plax. Plax also said he was going to torch Chicago’s secondary and well, we all saw what both he and Eli did in that game.
Laveranues Coles, NY Jets (Chicago) -- Coles has 13 grabs for 98 yards over the past three games. The Bears secondary has been exposed somewhat in the past few weeks, giving up all seven of their allowed TDs to WRs in the past five weeks. However, don’t start Coles against a Bears defense who dominated a solid Giants’ passing game last week.
Terry Glenn, Dallas (Indianapolis) – Since Bledsoe’s benching, Glenn has averaged a mere 3.67 receptions for 40 yards and 0.33 touchdowns over the past month. As well, he has a quad injury that may limit him. Over the past month the Colts have allowed opposing receivers to 9.2 catches for 106 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per outing. Glenn’s a desperation start at best.

TE
Ben Watson,
New England (at Green Bay) – Watson has been awful the past two weeks, with a total of 6 grabs for 61 yards. Green Bay hasn’t allowed a TD to a TE all season and has been playing them extremely well. Green Bay is awful against the run, so expect New England to use Dillon and Maroney as much as possible, with a little Kevin Faulk in there as well.
Randy McMichael, Miami (Minnesota) – McMichael has been seeing an increased number of receptions with Harrington at the helm, but he’s failed to score a TD this season, after scoring five last season. McMichael has been a huge disappointment, despite having 37 catches this season.
Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City (Oakland) – He’s out this week, so that’s a no-brainer.

K
Neil Rackers,
Arizona (Detroit) – Over the past three games, Rackers has averaged five kicking points per game while converting averages of one extra point and 1.33 field goals per contest. In the Lions past three games, they’ve allowed opposing kickers to average 7.33 points per game.

DEF
Carolina
(at St Louis) – Marc Bulger has been excellent as always this season (64% completion, 2500+ yards, 13 TDs, and 2 INTs). I think that Carolina will be threatened and quite easily beaten this week, with the way Bulger has been playing and the way Steven Jackson has been playing. Torry Holt is a no-brainer this week and Isaac Bruce should see more passes than in the past couple weeks as well. The Rams have a great offense and an improved pass defense. Carolina will have to win this game without relying on Steve Smith and do it on the ground.

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