Saturday, November 11, 2006

Week 10 – Start, Bench, Sleepers

Byes: None

Start

David Garrard, QB,
JacksonvilleWith a backup QB starting, the Jags will run the ball more often than usual (start Taylor and Jones-Drew). Garrard is possibly the best backup QB in the league and has a lot of weapons to work with. Houston is flat out awful, so expect the Jags (who are looking to destroy the Texans – who won the last matchup 27-7) to keep the Texans on their toes passing the ball.
Jon Kitna, QB, DetroitKitna’s gotten to that point where he’s a must start every week. It’s just hard to bench a guy who’s on track to throw for 4300 yards and 20 TDs…plus, the Niners pass defense stinks. Yeah, he'll probably throw a pick this week, but if he throws for 300 yards and 2 TDs, it'll be worth it.
Jake Delhomme, QB,
CarolinaDelhomme is generally his best in the second half of the season. His first half hasn’t been much to gawk over, a whopping 8 TDs with 5 INTs. I expect Keyshawn Johnson to see more action during the second half of the season. The Panthers are fresh off a bye week, should have DeAngelo Williams back and ready to improve on a 4-4 record.
Chester Taylor, RB, MinnesotaWhat has happened to Brad Johnson, he’s been horrid! Green Bay has a decent pass defense and should force Minnesota to pound it out on the ground. Taylor should see 28-32 carries and a couple grabs.
Warrick Dunn, RB,
Atlanta – Warrick Dunn saw a measily 11 carries last week and still produced well, despite the low number. This week will be an entirely different story as Jerious Norwood is out with a knee injury. Dunn will not only get the all the carries, but it’ll be a little easier on him as the Falcons play a rough Cleveland squad.
Corey Dillon, RB, New EnglandTwo comments here: 1) the Jets have allowed more TDs on the ground than any other team in the league (13). 2) Despite the fact that Maroney has about 70 yard more than Dillon, Dillon still has twice the number of TDs. Dillon is the goal line choice in this offense and should see a couple more this week.
Anthony Thomas, RB,
Buffalo – Opponents have been running wild on Indy’s defense (last in the league at 165+ yards per game). I expect Thomas to be running, and running a lot, because JP Losman struggles against Green Bay…Indy’s pass D is ranked 3rd.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland – Edwards has seemingly disappeared in the past few games, but should remerge against Atlanta’s beat up secondary. DeAngelo Hall talks a lot of trash, but was owned last week by Roy Williams…and shoot, even Mike Furrey.
Mike Furrey, WR, Detroit – With Roy Williams posting half of the games this season with totals over 138 yards, he’s going to get double teamed sometime soon. Against San Francisco, with a weaker secondary, they should do that, leaving Mike Furrey open to a big day. Furrey’s no slouch either, 41 catches for 503 yards.
Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville – Garrard or Leftwich, it doesn’t matter. The Jags are still passing the ball and still passing the ball fairly well. Reggie Williams is becoming more and more inconsistent and Matt Jones always plays well, especially when healthy. Jones was the Jags’ leading receiver last week and will post 80+ this week.
Laveranues Coles, WR, NY Jets – Coles has been quiet the past few weeks. The Pats weakness is their secondary, especially without Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson. Coles is a playmaker, so expect him to see the most grabs, however, Jerrico Cotchery is an unknown as of late.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland – Winslow is seeing a ton of passes his way (51 so far), but has been seeing less action with Joe Jurevicous back. Winslow will still see a lot of passes as Altanta’s secondary is hurting (Hall and Williams are both hurting and Smith was just put on IR).
Ben Watson, TE, New England – Watson has a good matchup on a Jets team that has been awful against TEs in the past three games (nearly 7 catches for 67 yards per game). Watson is seeing a lot of looks (~10 per game) and should see a score.
Morten Anderson, K,
Atlanta – I expect Atlanta to win this game, but I also expect them to kick a few FGs. Anderson was rarely in FG range last week, but should be back to form, seeing a couple of attempts and a couple PATs.
Detroit, DEF -- Detroit’s defense is for real. They shut down the Falcons last week, who seemed three-dimensional with Vick’s new found passing abilities. Detroit will have a tough time rushing Alex Smith, but San Fran’s offense is nothing to drool over. Detroit should have an easy time controlling a weak offense as they’ve got a lot of players back from injury.
Denver, DEF – This one is pretty much a no-brainer, right? One of the league’s top 3 defenses against the league’s worst offense (arguably). Denver could take a couple turnovers to the house as well.

Bench
Brett Favre, QB,
Green BayMinnesota has a decent pass defense. I expect this to be a good game, as Minnesota does their damage on the ground and Green Bay tries to through the air. Favre should see 240 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs…if he’s lucky, but you can do better. Greg Jennings is still dinged up as well, which doesn’t help Favre.
Jake Plummer, QB, DenverI liked Jake Plummer last year, but not this year. Jay Culter needs to get some time in because Plummer isn’t the answer. His one good game is behind him. Oakland has a good secondary and Rod Smith is hurting. Plummer has one playmaking WR, so Bell-squared should see action in the pass game and a ton of carries on the ground.
Eli Manning, QB, NY Giants –
The Bears are for real and the game last week was a fluke. Sure, Tiki is going to get his yards, but Plaxico Burress is hurting (and running his mouth), so don’t expect Manning to have a lot of time to throw to open guys. Shockey should be close to a non-factor as the Bears dominate TEs.
Deuce McAllister, RB,
New OrleansThe Steelers still have a great defense, which they proved last week when they held Denver’s RBs to less than 40 yards on 20 carries. McAllister is a good player, but he’ll be fighting for yards this week. Brees will be passing a lot, meaning big days for Joe Horn and Marques Colston.
Frank Gore, RB,
San FranciscoDetroit shut down the best running team in the league last week, so don’t bet Frank Gore and the Niners offense against them. Detroit is finally clicking, after getting a few key players back from injuries. Alex Smith should have a lot more time to pass, as James Hall and Shaun Rogers are out, but the run defense should be up to par. Gore’s a solid start as a flex back, though, as he sees a lot of passes. Don't start Antonio Bryant either.
Travis Henry, RB,
TennesseeStarting Henry against Baltimore isn’t a good move. Henry is a good back, but the players around him aren’t. Baltimore has only allowed two TDs on the year and less than 65 yards per game. Those numbers are incredible. Don’t bet on one of the league’s worst rushing offenses to beat those stats.
Rudi Johnson, RB, CincinnatiSan Deigo’s allowed only four rushing TDs this year on 85 yards per game. Those numbers are good enough for 4th in the league. Johnson’s not a good start this week, since the Bengals will be passing more often than not.
Rod Smith, WR,
DenverOakland has a very good pass defense. Rod’s dinged up, but is a tough player and should play this week. However, he is getting up there in age and could see limited time on the field. Against a good secondary…bench him.
Randy Moss, WR,
OaklandIt’s been time to cut bait with Moss for a long time now. If you still have him and won’t dump him, pick up someone else, like Chris Henry, Rashien Davis, or Matt Jones and start them. Moss is in a terrible offense and Champ Bailey is a top-5 CB, further reason to dump him.
Chris Chambers, WR, Miami – I’ll go on record to say that I don’t like any WR that has Joey Harrington passing to them. Joey is spreading the ball around a lot (unlike he did in Detroit), which is bad for Chambers. KC has done solid pass defense and I think KC’s secondary will shut down Chambers when they need to.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston – When Houston matched up on Jacksonville in week 7, Andre Johnson lit up Rashean Mathis on 8 grabs for 106 yards and a TD. The Texans won that game handily 27-7. Mathis is a shutdown stud; and look for a complete turn around this time, with Matt Jones and Reggie Williams both seeing solid days. Don’t look for Wali Lundy to do much either.
Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas -- Glenn left practice with a knee injury, so he may be limited in his action this week. With Romo starting at QB, Glenn has been seeing less looks anyway, so the knee injury is just further insult to injury. Witten and Owens have the best shot at having big days.
Jeremy Shockey, TE, NY Giants –
The Bears have been dominant against TEs this season. Shockey should see more passes with Toomer done for the year and Burress hurting, so a solid day wouldn’t be a shock, but don’t expect him to find the endzone.
Alge Crumpler, TE, AtlantaCrumpler only has 30 catches on the season, but is Vick’s main target. The Lions rattled Crumpler last week and did a good job on him. The Browns work with Kellen Winslow week in and week out, so they game plan for shutting down pass catching TEs.
Jason Elam, K, Denver – Why bench Elam against Oakland? He’ll never get the shot to kick a FG, that’s why. He’ll be kicking PATs all day, but how likely is it that he’s going to get a shot from less than 40 yards?
Washington, DEF – The Redskins have so much talent, yet their defense has been playing so bad. I don’t understand. The Eagles are hungry for a win and better than their 4-4 record. Bryan Westbrook and LJ Smith should both have huge days as they’re tough matchups for the ‘Skins. Oh yeah, Reggie Brown will show why he deserves his new contract.

Sleepers
Reuben Droughns, RB, Cleveland
– Droughns has been bad lately, but he can’t stay bad forever, right? Droughns has a ton of talent, but with little help from the passing game and almost nothing from the run blocking, he’s having a tough time. Atlanta was torched by the Lions offense last week and gives up huge numbers to pass catching backs. I think Droughns could have a solid day if Romeo Crennell can exploit that same weakness that Martz did last week.
Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago – Is anyone else sick of Thomas Jones dancing around in the backfield? Benson is the typical Bears running back, a big back that hits the hole hard and doesn’t go down on initial contact. Benson is seeing increasing touches every game, so gearing him for a starting role is inevitable.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis – I hate getting the question, Rhodes or Addai? Addai is the better back and the Colts are giving him more carries. Both are barely worthy of a start, except the fact they’re on the best offensive team in the league. Addai should see 80 yards and a score. Any more than 80 yards would be a sweet day for him.
Rashied Davis, WR, Chicago –
Davis is starting in place of Bernard Berrian; who’s out for at least two weeks with broken ribs. Davis has impressed as a rookie and should be a huge sleeper if Grossman is getting the kind of time to throw that he got early on in the season. It’s all dependant on Rex.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona – Fitz is going to come back strong, I can feel it. Dallas will have trouble hanging with one of the league’s top receivers. Boldin has been underachieving so far and Leinart will be throwing the ball all day.
Chris Cooley, TE, Washington –
The Eagles are so-so against defending TEs and Chris Cooley is a good one. Mark Brunell seems to see him some weeks and ignore him on others, so it’s tough to judge when he’ll have a good day.
Jay Feeley, K, NY Giants – Sorry Bears fans, but I have this gut-wrenching feeling that Feeley could kick four FGs and keep the Giants in a great position to win this game. He’s reliable and the Giants have the power to move the ball down the field.
Green Bay, DEF – Green Bay made the sleeper list because of the fact that Minnesota’s offense is nonexistent without Chester Taylor. What has happened to Brad Johnson, he looks awful! Green Bay has a decent pass defense and should force Minnesota to pound it out on the ground.

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