Sunday, August 20, 2006

Looking for Sleepers?

QB: Jake Delhomme
Jake Delhomme is arguably the most underrated Fantasy QB. Look at his stats over the past three years as the starting QB for the Panthers. 3219, 3886, and 3421 passing yards with 19, 29, and 24 passing TDs, respectively. In addition to the stellar Steve Smith, the cats picked up Keyshawn Johnson, who will definitely get his fair share of grabs this year. Delhomme also has a healthier backfield now that Stephen Davis has been replaced with DeAngelo Williams. It’s amazing how a guy like Delhomme will still be there in round 6 or 7 and should be the in 3700 yards and 27 TD range.

QB: Kurt Warner
Former MVP who many people claim was anointed the MVP simply because of his cast around him (Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Martz, etc). Look at his team this year; a should-be much improved defense, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Edgerrin James, a TE with threatening potential in Pope, etc). Warner was having a very good year last year until his groin injury, which should be the only thing keeping players from drafting Warner in the top 10 QBs. If he stays healthy, he could have a monster year…in the area of 3600 yards and 27 TDs...though watch out for his TD/INT ratio, as it could be up more than anyone would like. He will be had in the later rounds (after Round 6 or so and will be one of the biggest depth steals of the draft.

RB: Corey Dillon
The Pats did draft Maroney to replace Dillon, but Dillon still has enough left in the tank to run for 1200 yards and 13 or 14 TDs. Maroney, as a rookie, won’t replace Dillon this year. Dillon ran for 733 yards and 12 TDs last season, when missing six games due to injury. Dillon is dropping to the later rounds and could end up being a steal if snagged in the 6th or 7th rounds. The Pats’ OL is always good (ala Denver) and should provide for more of a run game since weapons such as David Givens were lost in the passing game. The Pats’ also have a schedule that caters to their run game (Bills twice, Jets twice, Titans, Texans, Lions, and Packers).

RB: Mike Bell
So, Shanahan is starting an URFA named Mike Bell. Bell, not having played a down in the NFL is supposed to be the starter for the “RB factory of the NFL.” Bell couldn’t have asked for a better situation. Bell is a talented back and is guaranteed at least 1000 yards and 8 TDs as long as he remains starting. At 220 pounds, Bell will get his fair share of red zone plays. However, don’t expect Bell to be a #1 or #2 RB on your fantasy team, but draft him simply for depth.

On another note, this doesn’t bode well for Ron Dayne, so you may want to rethink drafting Dayne any higher than your late, late, late rounds.

RB: Frank Gore
Frank Gore is running behind a newly revamped OL (Jennings, Allen, Newberry, Baas, and Harris). While Alex Smith is expected to start at QB, Trent Dilfer is a steady backup. Gore has much more potential than Kevan Barlow and should benefit from an improved passing game (Antonio Bryant added, Vernon Davis added, and Eric Johnson is back). Gore had 608 yards last year with 3 TDs and his role should dramatically increase this year. While Gore’s TD numbers may not be in the same ballpark as a Shaun Alexander, Gore will still get his share of attempts at the end zone. A year with 1000 yards and 7 or 8 TDs wouldn’t be far fetched with the beefier OL and added passing game weapons.

WR: Derrick Mason
I expected Mason to have a solid, 1100 yard season last year and I was disappointed. Then again, what can you expect with Kyle Boller at the helm? When McNair signed with Baltimore, Mason shot up my fantasy charts. Mason could be a top 10 fantasy WR simply because of McNair. McNair loves throwing to him (just look at the stats when they were Titans) and he’ll definitely get the chance to. Defenses have to worry about a solid run game (Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson) as well as some nice weapons in the passing game (Clayton, Heap, and Mason), as well as a QB who can still make things happen with his feet. Mason is quick and can still get open. He could have a great year with numbers around 1100 yards and 7 or 8 TDs.

WR: Lee Evans
Evans could be a legit starting fantasy WR as long as Losman is the QB. It was seen at the end of last season when Evans became Losman’s favorite target. Remember the 117 yard, 3 TD performance against Miami last season? Losman loves to throw to him, especially on long tosses for 30+ yards. However, word out of Bills camp is Holcomb being the guy…so don’t draft Evans any higher than round 6 just yet. He’ll put up decent numbers this year, but his potential to grab 80+ balls is much higher with Losman at the helm.

Going out on a limb here and saying:
with Holcomb – 1050 yards with 5 or 6 TDs
with Losman – 1300 yards and 9 TDs

WR: Reggie Brown
Reggie Brown? I’ve never been a fan of this guy, but it’s easy to see that Philly has nobody else to catch balls outside of Westbrook. Someone has to catch what McNabb throws; and he will throw for 3200+ yards. Brown wasn’t a flop in his rookie year and is sure to be much better. Brown is easily the best WR in Philly and could easily go for 1000 yards and 7 TDs. These aren’t bad numbers for a guy that can be had in later rounds.

WR: Reche Caldwell
Caldwell has been handed a starting spot in New England. Starting WR for the Patriots + Tom Brady as your QB = fantasy sleeper. Deion Branch will get his 80 grabs and potentially 1100 yards, but I don’t see him going over that. Brady loves to spread the ball out and Caldwell can get open. It wouldn’t be hard for Caldwell to have a breakout season since his highest yardage total has been 350 yards. Caldwell could see anywhere around 900-1000 yards for 5 scores. He’ll be a nice pickup as a #3 and someone you’re sure to be able to snag off the waiver wire (I just did).

TE: Heath Miller
Say what you will, but Heath could be a top 5 TE this year. Big Ben doesn’t have The Bus or Randell El at his disposal anymore. I expect the passing game, while still a power run team, will be relied upon more than in the past. Losing The Bus hurts this team in the red zone, so I expect Miller to pick up the slack in the red zone passing game. He put up 39 grabs for 459 yards and 6 TDs. 22 of those 39 grabs were for first downs. Big Ben knows Miller is a guy he can go to and won’t hesitate to offer him a red zone TD. Realistic numbers for Miller are in the area of 55 grabs for 700 yards and 10 TDs.

TE: Zach Hilton
Drew Brees loves throwing to his TE (see Antonio Gates and his ridiculous stats over the past few years). Zach Hilton is a young, talented TE who will benefit from Brees’ inability to throw a nice deep ball. Brees will have defenders always keeping an eye on Reggie Bush and Deuce McAlister, leaving Zach Hilton nice lanes over the middle to catch a lot of balls. Hilton could see 550 yards and 4 or 5 scores this season as long as he remains the starter, which shouldn’t be hard to do. Nice late round, backup TE steal.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yea...perhaps some of the worst Fantasy advice I have heard all year.
First, you contradict yourself by calling McNair a 'bust' but then predicting Mason to have an 1100 yard season. You call McNabb a bust with "no weapons". Well if you look at how Philly spreads the ball around their offense and you take a look at McNabb's 01-04 numbers....you realize how wrong you potentially will be.
You bash Edge's potential 06 season by suggesting potential 'heath' issues but yet you give Kurt Warner the sleeper tag. When was the last time Kurt Warner played in 16 games in a season genius?
Nothing we dont already know about Willis. If he gets 35 touches in 16 games, mathmatically he's gonna rush for 1100.
Who the hell drafts Marcus Pollard as their starting TE anyways?
Your take on Dillon is way off. Have you seen Maroney in the pre-season? Even if Dillon stays healthy in 06, Maroney will do to his numbers what Steven Jackson did to Faulk's last season. And since when is David Givens a "Weapon"? Did you think David Patten was a weapon in NE 2 years ago too?
"The QB battle between Losman and Holcomb hurts the passing game" ...but Lee Evans 1 game vs Miami makes him a huge pick...right....
Reche Caldwell......are you f'n kidding me?
Look, I dont know how many Fantasy Champions you are making out there...but I have to guess none with the advice your giving out. It seems like you took paragraphs printed in a Fantasy Magazine, about other players, and just slapped someone else's name on em.

Stick to just covering the Lions bro. This Fantasy advice is garbage.

Anonymous said...

Okay, I just have to respond to this.

Let's start on McNair. Yes, I'm calling him a fantasy bust. Draft him and we'll see what happens. Yes, I'm calling Mason a fantasy sleeper. Even with Boller at the helm for half the season, Mason will still put up good numbers.

McNabb -- Look at McNabb's 2003 stats...3200 yards, 16 TDs, and 11 INTs. Not impressive.

Do you understand what "sleeper" means? I called Edge a "bust" because many will take him top 8 overall and he won't repeat his last year's numbers because of Indy's OL. Warner is a "sleeper" because he'll put up good numbers this year, as he was doing last year until his groin injury.

Reche Caldwell a sleeper? Yes. He's starting and he'll put up decent numbers. He's a guy that will more than likely go undrafted and could be helpful if WRs get hurt or someone didn't pay attention to bye weeks.

Evans will improve from a subpar season. I didn't call him a huge pick, I called him a sleeper.

Gotta love the people who just pick certain phrases to rant about without reading the entire thing.