...And the busts

The major, and minor, fantasy busts.
QB: Steve McNair
I’ve heard quite a few people say they want to take McNair earlier than the 6th round; that he’ll be a 3500 yard, 25 TD QB this year. I beg to differ. Yes, he does have some great weapons in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap (both of which are high on my fantasy charts). Throw in an underachieving Mark Clayton and a power run game with Lewis and Anderson and you have a decent offense. However, we have to be real here. McNair will be extremely lucky if he makes it through the entire season. I expect Kyle Boller to be forced into the starting role, which won’t bode well for anyone. Fantasy owners should be in shock if McNair makes it long enough to throw for 3300 yards and 21 TDs. This is entirely possible, but how much are you willing to gamble on a QB who’s on his last legs and has missed at least two games in each of the past three seasons? If you want an old QB, go for Kurt Warner or Brad Johnson…or gamble on the breakout potential of Chris Simms.

QB: Donovan McNabb
Don’t take McNabb very high; get some superstuds like Chad Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Smith before taking McNabb. He has a cast that consists of: a running back that has great receiving skills that needs to stay healthy for once, Reggie Brown who would be #2 on any other team, and then a slew of guys like Gaffney, Pinkston, and Lewis who are merely average #3 WRs. Brown should have a breakout year, but McNabb will be fighting to hit 3400 yards and 19 TDs without a playmaking #1 WR. Those are good numbers, but McNabb has so much more potential and his TD/INT ratio will be up much higher than the past couple years. If he throws 19 TDs, I believe he’ll be in the 13 or 14 INT range, which doesn’t help your fantasy numbers.

QB: Mark Brunell
Brunell has the captain of inconsistency. Last season he would have a tremendous game followed by a tremendously terrible game. Along with a few other poor fellas out there who drafted a guy like Culpepper or McNabb, I had to replace them with someone and Brunell was it. I found out the hard way. Brunell had a decent year last year, throwing for 3000 yards, his first time since 2001. Brunell has more weapons this year, but that simply means he’ll spread the ball out a little more. He will hit the 3000 yard mark, but his TD/INT ratio won’t be 23/10 as it was last year. It’ll be more like 20/16. That constitutes as a bust in my opinion. Also, Clinton Portis has to stay healthy or else Brunell will be throwing a lot more balls and he’ll pay for it.

RB: Willis McGahee
McGahee is a great running back. He’s a phenomenal athlete and could be a consistant 1500 yard rusher if he had a decent cast around him. The QB battle between Losman and Holcomb hurts the passing game; Eric Moulds is gone, the offensive line is lucky to be considered sub-average. McGahee will bust quite a few big runs this year and run for 1100-1200 yards and 8 TDs, but he’s definitely going to be earning every single yard. These numbers are good for your third string RB, but don’t expect him to be a 1500 yard, 14 TD guy. He will be gone before the later rounds because he’s getting a lot of love. Don’t be worried if someone grabs him in the third round, because he isn’t worth that high of a pick.

RB: Edgerrin James
Edge is an elite back in this league and I never give him enough credit for what he’s done. He’s a very good blocking back and you can’t argue with stats that average 1500 yards and 12 TDs per year when healthy. Edge will take a step back from his Indy days because of the offensive line (OL). You can’t compare ‘Zona’s OL to Indy’s. When you have a prolific passing game (yes, Arizona does have one of the best passing games in the league), it’s much harder to run get 350+ touches. For now, I wouldn’t rank Edge much higher than 8 or 9 on my running back list, as he’ll probably disappoint you. Also, what happens when if Warner gets hurt and Leinart has to lead the offense mid-year?

WR: Santana Moss
Moss is a fantastic receiver; however, he’ll be sharing catches with a much larger crew this year. Washington just acquired Brandon Llloyd and Antwaan Randle El will definitely get their fair share of the offense. Moss won’t reach that near 1500 yard, 9 TD performance he had last year, but should be in the 1200 yard, 7 TD ballpark. Solid #2 fantasy WR numbers.

As well, TE Chris Cooley caught 71 balls last year (for 774 yards and 7 TDs)... was he on your fantasy charts? Don’t look for a repeat from Cooley, but 55 grabs for 575 yards and 5 TDs should be in order. Cooley will be another fantasy “bust” who won’t match his last year totals. Cooley’s last year totals were close to Jeremy Shockey - type numbers. Pick Cooley up on your second pass for TEs.

WR: Joe Horn
Horn is 34 years old and definitely had his problems last year (amid his constant complaining, is his heart still in the game?). In 2004 he had a 94 catch, 1399 yard, 11 TD year. Those are amazing numbers, but look as his last season pile…49 grabs for 650 yards and 1 TD over 13 games. Yeah, Aaron Brooks was throwing the ball, but Drew Brees won’t be getting Horn the long ball and Horn won’t be shaking defenders out of their shoes taking them for a huge gain. Horn will be lucky to see 900 yards this season with 4 scores.

TE: Chris Cooley
See “WR: Santana Moss” above.

TE: Marcus Pollard
Pollard led the Lions in receptions last season; however, don’t expect him to come close to matching those numbers this year. Pollard is in a Mike Martz offense, which doesn’t cater to TEs. Besides, Dan Campbell was brought in to help with the run blocking and Martz likes Casey Fitzsimmons more than Pollard, judging from where Pollard is playing in practices and preseason games. Martz has also been rumored to have moved Pollard to the H-back position, which will limit his production. Oh, and I forgot to add; Roy Williams, Corey Bradford, Mike Williams, Kevin Jones, Arlen Harris and Brian Calhoun will all be competing for catches.