Let's start breaking down the positions before the draft starting with the QBs. There are three tiers among the top quarterbacks with a clear top three followed by another five in tier two. After that it gets very murky with little separating the number 8 QB from number 15. So if you don't get one of the top eight, you might as well focus on building the rest of your team up and grabbing a pair of QBs later in the draft.
1) Tom Brady, Patriots
2007 Stats: 4,806 yds, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, 117.2 QB rating
Key Weapons: Randy Moss, Wes Welker
Brady has always been a great NFL quarterback, but now that Brady has some real weapons he has become very relevant in fantasy football. So relevant in fact that he could well crack the top five overall on many draft boards. I would expect the Pats to put a bit more emphasis on the run this year and Brady's numbers to dip, but when your dipping down from 50 touchdowns you have a lot of room to mess with.
2) Peyton Manning, Colts
2007 Stats: 4,040 yds, 31 TDs, 14 INTs, 98.0 QB rating
Key Weapons: Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark
The former undisputed king of FF quarterbacks has been knocked off the top spot. In fact, I was fairly close to moving him to the third spot with the aging of Marvin Harrison and the "minor" knee surgery he had last month. But this is Peyton Manning we are talking about and he is a sure fire 30 TD performer with a ton of weapons still around him and I didn't even list Joseph Addai among his weapons.
3) Tony Romo, Cowboys
2007 Stats: 4,211 yds, 36 TDs, 19 INTs, 97.4 QB rating
Key Weapons: Terrell Owens, Jason Witten
I was tempted to put Romo ahead of Manning but his relative inexperience and on-again off-again distraction with Jessica Simpson wouldn't allow it. It is scary to think how good Romo can be this year with a full season of experience under his belt. He has a great offensive line protecting him, a solid one-two punch at RB with Marion Barber and Felix Jones to take pressure off, and also posses a running threat himself.
4) Drew Brees, Saints
2007 Stats: 4,423 yds, 28 TDs, 18 INTs, 89.4 QB rating
Key Weapons: Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey
I put Brees at the top of what I consider the second tier of quarterbacks after the Big Three. Brees started slow last year but ended up putting huge passing yards, second only to Brady, and a very respectable 28 TDs. Head coach Sean Payton knows how to maximize the QB position and having RB Reggie Bush gives him a nice underneath threat on every play. The addition of Jeremy Shockey proved to be the difference however.
5) Carson Palmer, Bengals
2007 Stats: 4,131 yds, 26 TDs, 20 INTs, 86.7 QB rating
Key Weapons: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson
Palmer has the big arm and the weapons to challenge the top tier, but the Bengals are a team that can end up with more players in the clink than on the field. It is a team that always seems on the verge of implosion. New TE Ben Utecht comes over from the Colts and understands the passing game. Palmer will, however, put up a decent amount of yards and a good number of touchdowns, they can however come in bunches with plenty of dry spells in between.
6) Derek Anderson, Browns
2007 Stats: 3,787 yds, 29 TDs, 19 INTs, 82.5 QB rating
Key Weapons: Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr.
Who would have guessed Derek Anderson of all people would be on this list a year ago? Certainly not the Browns who traded back into the first-round to take quarterback Brady Quinn out of Notre Dame in the first-round. But Anderson had a huge year with the emergence of wideout Braylon Edwards and a solid performance from a healthy TE Kellen Winslow. Still, Anderson played in bunches much like Palmer and remains high risk/high reward.
7) Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
2007 Stats: 3,154 yds, 32 TDs, 11 INTs, 104.1 QB rating
Key Weapons: Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller
Big Ben stayed off the bike last season and finished the season as the second highest rated quarterback in the NFL, setting a team record for QB rating. After a great season there are plenty of concerns including an improved running game with first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall added to a RB core that already included fast Willie Parker. The biggest concern is the OL that has allowed 96 sacks the past two season and lost All-Pro guard Alan Faneca.
8) Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
2007 Stats: 3,966 yds, 28 TDs, 12 INTs, 91.4 QB rating
Key Weapons: Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram
A steady performer, Hasselbeck quietly set career highs for both yards and touchdowns last season. He has been dealing with back issues this preseason but those don't appear serious. Former superstar FF RB Shaun Alexander has been replaced by Julius Jones who never really shined in Big D. Matt lacks the weapons of the top seven QBs which push him down to this spot and at the back of the line of second tiered QBs. After Matt it gets real scary.
9) Donovan McNabb, Eagles
2007 Stats: 3,324 yds, 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 89.9 QB rating
Key Weapons: Kevin Curtis, Brian Westbrook
Entering his tenth NFL season McNabb's health is always going to be a big concern. He just didn't look right last year coming back from his knee injury. Gone are the days when he had TO as a huge receiving threat and his legs as a major running threat. Second-round pick DeSean Jackson adds much needed speed to Philly's group of receivers and TE L.J. Smith is a consistent performer, but former second-round pick QB Kevin Kolb remains ready should McNabb falter.
10) Marc Bulger, Rams
2007 Stats: 2,392 yds, 11 TDs, 15 INTs, 70.3 QB rating
Key Weapons: Torry Holt, Drew Bennett
His completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, and QB rating have been on the decline for a couple of years but I expect Bulger to bounce back from a horrible 2007 campaign. He is healthy again and LT Orlando Pace is back. Two other OL, Richie Incognito and Mark Setterstrom are also back, both from knee injuries. But Drew Bennett is now his second biggest weapon with Isaac Bruce moving to the niners and the number three WR is even scarier - buyer beware.
Just Missed:
Brett Farve, Jets
David Garrard, Jaguars
Eli Manning, Giants
Jay Cutler, Broncos
Jake Delhomme, Panthers
Thursday, August 14, 2008
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1 comment:
I like the order, except I like Drew Brees over Romo because of weapons like Shockey and Colston and of course the RB slash WR - Bush!
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