Sunday, December 03, 2006

Week 13 - Start and Bench

START
QB
Rex Grossman, Chicago
– After a long, disappointing drought, Grossman is back this week against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. If Matt Leinart can throw for 400+ without the hint of a running game, the two speedsters Berrian and Bradley will have a field day on Fred Smoot, Darren Sharper, and Antoine Winfield. Expect another big game from Berrian.
Tom Brady, New England – Do I really have to say anything more than he’s playing the Lions. However, the Lions typically win the games they’re most likely to lose (Atlanta this season, Baltimore last season) and lose the games they could win.
Tony Romo, Dallas – After last week, you just can’t bench this guy. The Giants are in shambles, with Tiki Barber seeing all his goal line TDs go to a backup, Michael Strahan spouting off at reporters, and the huge amount of injuries that have plagued this team, especially defensively. Romo uses all his weapons, and uses them equally as well. Consistency is the key once again.
Marc Bulger – Bulger faces an Arizona defense that is fairly solid, but lacks consistency. Bulger needs more production of the rest of his offense, rather than relying on Steven Jackson to rack up 192 offensive yards. I expect Torry Holt to show an inexperienced Antrel Rolle how to run routes and be effective, even as an aging player.

RB
Sammy Morris,
Miami – So Ronnie Brown is out for a few weeks with a broken hand, which means Morris is the main-man in Miami. He's facing a tough Jacksonville run defense, but Miami is better than they show and Morris should be able to break in and prove he's a solid back, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season.
Travis Henry, Tennessee – Once again Henry is facing the league’s 31st ranked rush defense in the Colts. The first time, he ran for 123 yards on 19 carries as the Titans lost 14-13 to the Colts. The Titans are hungry and a win here would really help this team and their confidence. I think Henry will go for just over 100 and a score in this game. Plus, LenDale White has a minor injury and Chris Brown could be active.
Ahman Green, Green Bay – Green has been terrible this year, but it doesn’t help he’s got two rookies blocking for him, a new system, and a new staff. Green has to break out of this funk he’s in, and there’s no better time to do so than against the Jets
Edgerrin James, Arizona – James is worth a start against the league’s worst rush defense, the Rams. James proves he still has some speed left, as she demonstrated against the Lions patchwork Cover 2.

WR
Jerrico Cotchery, NY Jets – It’s safe to assume that Al Harris will be matching up on Laveranues Coles for most of the game, leaving Charles Woodson on Jerrico Cotchery. Woodson’s had one good game this season, last week. However, expect the Jets to air the ball out much more than Hasselbeck did last week, resulting in Green Bay relying on their safeties to help with deep coverage…the team’s biggest weakness.
Bernard Berrian, Chicago – After allowing 312 receiving yards on 20 receptions to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, Bernard Berrian is a safe start this week, as he’s sure to torch an awful Minnesota secondary.
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh – With Hines Ward out this week, Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes should both see a much increased role in the Pittsburgh offense. Holmes has been targeted six times per game, with four catches for over 50 yards in each of the past four weeks.
Torry Holt, St. Louis – As I mentioned with Marc Bulger, I see Torry Holt regaining his role as the main-man in this receiving group. He’s one of the best in the game and will show an inexperienced Antrel Rolle how to run routes and make plays.

W/R
Joseph Addai,
Indianapolis – Addia is officially the man in Indy, in my opinion. His carries have dominated Dominick Rhodes, who has been producing little compared to Addai. Addai’s monster game last week shows that he can run well and he can catch extremely well.
Marion Barber III, Dallas – Barber has been continually stealing carries from Julius Jones over the season. Barber has 9 total TDs compared to Jones’ 3, plus he’s averaging 1.1 yards per carry more than Jones. Last week, he had 2 receptions, both for TDs. He’s the go-to guy in Dallas. Against the Giants, Barber should continue to see all goal line attempts as well as a larger load.
Ladell Betts, Washington
-- Atlanta's defense has been terrible lately, especially against the pass. Betts is a great backup, possibly on the waiver wire, and sees a lot of action out of the backfield. He's a great flex start this week against a thin, hurting Falcon defense.

TE
Chris Cooley, Washington
– Cooley has been the second top producing fantasy TE since Week 8. Jason Campbell has been targeting Cooley more than Santana Moss lately, giving Cooley three long balls for a score. What really helps for Cooley is that Jason Webster and Jimmy Williams are both hurt, so Omare Lowe may get the nod. That’s good for any receiver.
Ben Watson, New England – Watson is the primary receiving target in New England and has a great rapport with Tom Brady. Detroit is awful against TEs, with a young linebacking corps and a secondary that can’t even stop Matt Leinart.

K
Jeff Wilkins,
St. Louis – Wilkins has been at the top of his game this season. St. Louis should move the ball pretty easily against the Cardinals, who have given up 22 field goals this season (tied for 3rd most in the league) in addition to 28 PATs (25th in the league).

DEF
PittsburghTampa’s offense has been weak for the bulk of the season. Tampa is 29th in the league in passing and 31st in rushing, despite only giving up 21 sacks (12th best in the league). Pittsburgh’s secondary is hurting, but it’s good enough to shut down Tampa’s lack of passing attack.
Kansas City – Though the Chiefs aren’t better than average in pass or rush defense, the Browns are pretty bad in both areas. The Browns have a 16 total TDs…they’ve also thrown 16 INTs. That’s pretty bad.

BENCH
QB
Aaron Brooks,
Oakland – Any QB facing Houston’s pass defense is a tempting start, but Brooks showed last week, that despite starting off hot, he can throw a game away. He also exposed some weaknesses in the San Diego defense.
Trent Green, Kansas CityCleveland has an underrated pass defense…13 TDs allowed and 14 picks on the season. Green has been barely average in his time back, completely relying on Larry Johnson to do it all. Don’t expect Tony Gonzalez to dominate this week either. Cleveland prepares against one of the best TEs in the league in Kellen Winslow, every single week.
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay – Bruce is a solid QB, especially for a rookie, but Pittsburgh’s defense is still tough, without Troy Polamalu. Joey Galloway is about as inconsistent as you can get and should not be a problem for Pittsburgh’s corners. Clayton is essentially a non-threat, so it all relies on Galloway.

RB
Julius Jones, Dallas
– Jones is steadily losing carries to Marion Barber, especially goal line carries. Last week, Jones didn’t see any catches, while Marion Barber saw two…both for TDs. Jones is essentially a non-scoring factor, unless he breaks one for over 30 yards. I wouldn’t worry about that either – his longest run this year is 33 yards.
Thomas Jones, Chicago – Nobody runs against Minnesota…so they throw. Minnesota’s top rushing defense in the league means that the dancer, Thomas Jones, should stay on the bench this week. Expect to see more of Cedric Benson, who’s a much more powerful runner.
Willis McGahee, San Diego – Why don’t I like McGahee against a San Diego defense that allowed over 110 rushing yards per week in weeks 9 through 12? Shawne Merriman. He’s back and he’s going to be making up for the four games he missed.
DeShaun Foster, Carolina – Foster has an elbow injury, so he may or may not play this week. If he does play, he’ll definitely split a lot of time with rookie DeAngelo Williams. Williams is a much better ball catcher, so expect Williams to see an additional role for that reason as well.

WR
Chris Chambers,
Miami – Chambers hasn’t even topped 75 yards receiving this season. Harrington has mad man-love for Marty Booker, which was unexpected. Chambers has looked bad enough, not even getting open against crappy cornerbacks.
Plaxico Burress, NY Giants – When Eli’s bad, Plax is bad. Eli should be bad again this week against a steadily improving Dallas defense. After the job they did against Eli’s brother and co (limiting the Colts to 14 points), it’s a safe bet to keep Plax on the bench until he starts finishing some routes.
Deion Branch, SeattleJackson is still the main target in Seattle, meaning he’ll get most of the matchups on Champ Bailey, possibly the league’s top corner. Branch has been underperforming for the amount of times he’s targeted and doesn’t seem to be playing to his full potential. Branch will still see matchups on Darrent Williams, who’s no slouch himself.
Reggie Williams, Jacksonville – Williams has been inconsistent the entire season, not just since David Garrard took over. Last week Williams saw 4 catches for a whopping 31 yards, while Garrard has been using Wrightster, Jones-Drew, and Taylor in more of the primary role than his receivers.

TE
Desmond Clark, Chicago
Clark has been terrible after the early beginning of the season, when he was one of the hottest TEs in the league.

K
Olindo Mare,
Miami – He’s average at best, but he always blows one the long kick he needs to make. Jacksonville still has a tough defense and Miami is running with Ronnie Brown. Harrington forces throws, so expect a couple turnovers and Mare having to kick from 45+ when he gets the chance. He’s 1 for 6 from 50+ and 7 for 9 from 40-50.

DEF
Denver – I like Denver’s defense, but I think Seattle has a good shot at putting up 17+ on the Broncos this week. Shaun Alexander proved he was healthy and that he was still dangerous last week, pounding out 40 carries for 200+ yards. Hasselbeck made some bad decisions last week, but should see an average game of 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

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