Saturday, September 30, 2006

Week 4 - Start, Bench, and Waiver

Start
Marc Bulger, QB, Rams –
Bulger has a history of being accurate and he’ll stand in the pocket, taking shot after shot in order to deliver a ball. Detroit’s pass defense has been non-existent the past two games, along with their pass rush. Bulger could have a 400 yard day and 2 TDs against a terrible secondary.
Charlie Frye, QB, Browns –
Get him off the waiver and start him, especially if your #1 QB is on a bye week. Frye has a good match up against Oakland’s secondary with Edwards and Winslow spreading the defense out. Both Oakland’s starting CBs have minor injuries (Asomugha and Washington).
Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers –
The Panthers offense is starting to come back to their 2005 form, with Steve Smith back in action. New Orleans defense had a great game last week and completely stuffed the Falcons league-best running attack. Don’t expect the same this week as the Panthers tear it up through the air.
Julius Jones, RB, Cowboys –
The Cowboys will be running the ball often and will gain big yardage on the ground versus a bad Titans defense. The Titans were torched on the ground by San Deigo, giving up over 200 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Start Jones and possibly use Marion Barber as your flex back, as he could see a nice amount of playing time if the game is an early blowout.
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – Gore should come back to form against Kansas City this week, who’s failed to hold opponents under 115 rushing yards. Gore should see more red zone opportunities this week, as KC’s defensive line isn’t as stout as Phily’s.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins – Brown will bust his first 100 yard game of the year this week against a Texans defense that was torched for 200 yard by Portis and Betts last week. Brown should find the endzone at least once as well.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns – Edwards had a big game last week against a good Ravens secondary. Expect much of the same this week as he’s facing a much worse Raiders defense. Oakland is ranked 2nd against the run, but they’ve also faced teams that love to run the ball (San Diego and Baltimore).
Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles –
Stallworth has a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Last week, when Stallworth was on the sidelines against the Niners, Brown had a big day with over 100 yards. Expect much of the same from Brown, who is facing a Packer D that was torched through the air by Detroit.
Roy Williams, WR, Detroit – Jon Kitna is an accurate QB, but his WRs need to learn better routes – a staple of a Martz offense. Kitna likes to spread the ball around and use his backs, but Williams is too talented for an average secondary who’s given up over 120 yards to both Antonio Bryant and Anquan Boldin in the past two weeks.
Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets – Coles has a good matchup this week on Jason David, who is not very good in zone coverage. Coles will demand a lot of safety help (Bob Sanders is out with a knee injury) and Coles will be able to exploit his matchup and have a nice day.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans – Johnson has put together some very good games already this season. Matching up on Will Allen should be a blessing for Johnson, as he’s been able to dominate single coverage all season and is a magnet for the ball. Johnson should go for another 100 yards and a score this week.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Browns – Winslow has been one of the hottest TEs in the league to date. Oakland gave up a TD to Antonio Gates and Todd Heap, expect Winslow to do much of the same. He’ll stay minimal in yardage, but he’ll net a score.
Joel Klopfenstein, TE, Rams –
The Lions linebackers are terrible and have been owned over the middle this season. They allowed Desmond Clark to go over 80 yards and a score, Ahman Green, Bubba Franks, and Donald Lee to catch over a combined 150 yards and a TD last week. Note - Stephen Jackon is a no brainer this week!
Robbie Gould, K, Bears – Gould has been a great kicker this season and he should see a lot of attempts a solid Seattle defense. I expect the Bears to move the ball pretty well, but fail in the red zone more than once. Gould should net around 9 points this week.
Eagles, DEF –
The Eagles have a pretty good defense and will score a lot of points against a bad Packer D. The Packers will be playing from behind and we all saw how Favre performs when trying to come from behind. Last season he threw 23 of 29 picks when coming from behind and forcing balls into coverage.

Bench
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks
– Hasselbeck is a stud (anyone who can throw for 5 TDs against a solid Giants D is a stud in my book), but he’s facing an awesome Chicago defense this week. Losing Alexander to injury for awhile doesn’t cripple this team, but Hasselbeck will be throwing the ball often against a good secondary. Expect a 230 yard 2 TD, 2 INT from Hasselbeck. There are better matchups to exploit this week with lesser QBs.
Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals –
Warner was rumored to be yanked for Leinart, but we all found out that was just some miscommunication. Keep Warner on the back burner, since Green doesn’t want to throw Leinart into the fire against very good teams like Atlanta. Warner is a fumble factory and should ride the pine this week.
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers – Rivers is efficient and can get the job done, but he’s faced bad teams with bad secondaries so far (Oakland and Tennessee). Rivers doesn’t need to do a lot because he has the two best safety valves in the game, but he’s going to get more pressure this week and should only produce average numbers.
Rex Grossman, QB, Bears –
Finally the Bears should be able to go back to their run first philosophy. The Bears will have to run the ball to control the clock, as Grossman should give up at least one turnover in this game. Grossman looked bad last game, throwing off his back foot under pressure rather than throwing the ball away. Grossman should ride the pine as he faces another good secondary.
Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings – The Bills have been stout against the run this season, since giving up over 170 to the Pats (less than 90 to the Dolphins and less than 70 to the Jets). Taylor should go somewhere around 80 (3 ypc roughly) and should be held scoreless.
Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals – James is definitely riding the bench this week, facing a good Atlanta defense that is coming off a huge blowout to the Saints. The Falcons were dissected last week, on offense and defense and will rebound against the Cardinals. This will not be a good day for anyone in a Cards uniform, especially James, who has yet to run over 93 yards this season.
Jamal Lewis, RB, Ravens – Lewis has yet to go over 86 yards this season, though averaging 4 ypc. San Diego has given up less than 130 yards on the ground in two games, so expect them, coming fresh off of a bye week, to stay solid against the run.
Ahman Green, RB, Packers –
Green had an unexpectedly good week last week, but he’s still got some lingering injuries and he’s facing a very good Phily defense this week, who’s done a great job against the run this season. Expect Morency to see a few carries this week as well and Favre to throw the ball 45 times as this will be a blowout for the Eagles.
Randy Moss, WR, Raiders – I almost get tired of saying this every week. Moss is a talented WR, even with Andrew Walter as the QB. The Raiders passing game stinks and with Jerry Porter in the doghouse, Alvis Whitted and Ronald Curry aren’t doing much as #2 and #3 guys. Moss will get CB and S help all game.
Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks – Burleson will be losing time to Deion Branch in a 2 or 3 WR set and Holmgren plans on running a lot of 4 WR sets with Jeremy Stevens out, so Burleson will lose additional looks that way. Not to mention, the Seahawks are playing the Bears who have a very good pass defense.
Troy Williamson, WR, Vikings
– Williamson will be matched up on Nate Clements and an underrated Bills defense (most allowed this season were a 250 yard day by Culpepper and a 2 TD day by Brady). Williamson has speed, but he’s had a case of the dropsies this season. Expect guys like Marcus Robinson to get the red zone looks if there are any.
John Gilmore, TE, Bears –
Don’t buy into the Gilmore hype because it’s possible that Clark may not play. Gilmore should see some grabs, but he’s no Clark. Let him stay on the waiver as his 2 TD game against Detroit’s terrible linebacking corps was a fluke.
Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins – I remember being blasted for calling Cooley a bust this year, but he’s been just that. 7 catches for 38 yards over three games is terrible (almost as bad as Randy McMichael). Keep him on the bench until Brunell starts throwing him the ball.
Baltimore, DEF – Baltimore has played some teams in rough shape (Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Cleveland) and they barely squeaked by Cleveland. I’m counting a loss for Baltimore this week and a big game from both Gates, Tomlinson, and Turner.

Waiver
Marques Colston, WR/TE, Saints
– Colston is a good player. In most leagues you can use him as a WR or TE and he is consistent. He rarely drops a pass and he can get open. Great waiver wire pickup.
Maurice Morris, RB, Seahawks – Seattle will run the ball against the Bears. Seattle has a plethora of good WRs, but their OL has to fend off the best front 7 in the league. I think Holmgren will be running the ball and Morris will get good numbers for a backup.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars -- I see Jones-Drew unseating Taylor for the starting spot in Jacksonville very soon. Jones-Drew is a good RB and he could be a good #2 RB in a couple weeks.
Browns, DEF – Cleveland has a good match up against a bad offense this week. Cleveland should make a very good bye replacement defense.
Mercedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars
– Lewis will see an increased role this week in the offense, as Matt Jones still has some lingering effects from his groin injury. Lewis was drafted to be a nice safety valve for Leftwich, like Gates is in San Deigo. Lewis should evolve into a nice waiver pickup in the next few weeks.

No comments: