Reggie Bush question and a couple comments

Question -- Reggie Bush worth a high pick?

Two words; absolutely not. Bush will do a little of everything. Bush is a player who will frustrate you. During draft time, I went out on a limb and said Bush wasn’t worthy of a top pick and he was overrated (I also got blasted for it). However, I feel that Bush’s preseason performances are comparative of what will come. Let’s check out the stats. Bush has a whopping 15 rushing attempts in three games. Hard to judge of this I know, but those 15 attempts have amounted to 88 yards, with one run going for 44 of those 88 yards. Those aren’t bad numbers, 5.86 ypc. You take away that one run and Bush goes for a measly 3.14 ypc. Check out his receiving stats – 9 grabs for 44 yards and a lost fumble; unimpressive. Combine this with the fact that teams will be planning to stop Bush when he’s in the game and that doesn't help those numbers.

Linebackers and safeties are faster in the pros than they were in college, and they’ll have a much better chance at catching Reggie on a screen, draw, or a dump pass behind the line of scrimmage (in addition to being more disciplined). It’s hard to judge on the preseason on all accounts. Just do yourself a favor and take Bush later in the draft if you want to gamble on big play ability, let someone else draft him high and pick up the Reuben Droughns, Frank Gore, Credric Benson, or even Kevan Barlow that they passed over.

Comment -- Donovan McNabb and the Eagles WR corps
Donte Stallworth is now an Eagle. Great move by the Eagles, who got a solid WR who should eventually step into the #1 role. Reggie Brown, with the addition of Stallworth, should make fantasy owners of McNabb giddy. I know I called McNabb a bust, but that was without Stallworth. McNabb’s WRs were average at best, and though Stallworth is no world-beater, he definitely upgraded that corps. Is Stallworth a game changer? No, not really, but McNabb’s TD/INT ratio will increase from the 19/14 like I said to in the range of 21/13. That’s what another proven WR who’s got playmaking ability will do for you. Greg Lewis and Jabar Gaffney added in as backups are solid (Todd Pinkston was just recently released).

As well, this should make fantasy owners who drafted Stallworth happy, because Brees has shown his already weak arm, is still weak. The WR corps in New Orleans is going to be hurting, especially with Joe Horn getting to the point where he’ll be fighting off the injury bug.

Comment -- Good thing you drafted Carson Palmer!
So it’s not hard to carve up a terrible Green Bay defense, I know this, but Carson Palmer showed no signs of his knee injury in his first game back from a nine month rehab. Palmer went 9/14 for 140 yards and 3 TDs; without Chad Johnson. I'm glad I picked up Palmer in the mid-second round about two weeks ago, he'll be worth that high of a pick. Palmer should have another weapon to throw to once Chris Henry is back from his strained hamstring (preseason opener) as well as his PCL injury in last season’s wild card game...just hope he doesn't do anything stupid and actually get suspended for a year.

The Bengals have the third toughest schedule in the league this season and Palmer will be fighting through some very good defenses (Pittsburgh twice, Tampa Bay, Indy, Carolina, and New England) as well improved defenses such as Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego).

...And the busts

The major, and minor, fantasy busts.
QB: Steve McNair
I’ve heard quite a few people say they want to take McNair earlier than the 6th round; that he’ll be a 3500 yard, 25 TD QB this year. I beg to differ. Yes, he does have some great weapons in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap (both of which are high on my fantasy charts). Throw in an underachieving Mark Clayton and a power run game with Lewis and Anderson and you have a decent offense. However, we have to be real here. McNair will be extremely lucky if he makes it through the entire season. I expect Kyle Boller to be forced into the starting role, which won’t bode well for anyone. Fantasy owners should be in shock if McNair makes it long enough to throw for 3300 yards and 21 TDs. This is entirely possible, but how much are you willing to gamble on a QB who’s on his last legs and has missed at least two games in each of the past three seasons? If you want an old QB, go for Kurt Warner or Brad Johnson…or gamble on the breakout potential of Chris Simms.

QB: Donovan McNabb
Don’t take McNabb very high; get some superstuds like Chad Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Smith before taking McNabb. He has a cast that consists of: a running back that has great receiving skills that needs to stay healthy for once, Reggie Brown who would be #2 on any other team, and then a slew of guys like Gaffney, Pinkston, and Lewis who are merely average #3 WRs. Brown should have a breakout year, but McNabb will be fighting to hit 3400 yards and 19 TDs without a playmaking #1 WR. Those are good numbers, but McNabb has so much more potential and his TD/INT ratio will be up much higher than the past couple years. If he throws 19 TDs, I believe he’ll be in the 13 or 14 INT range, which doesn’t help your fantasy numbers.

QB: Mark Brunell
Brunell has the captain of inconsistency. Last season he would have a tremendous game followed by a tremendously terrible game. Along with a few other poor fellas out there who drafted a guy like Culpepper or McNabb, I had to replace them with someone and Brunell was it. I found out the hard way. Brunell had a decent year last year, throwing for 3000 yards, his first time since 2001. Brunell has more weapons this year, but that simply means he’ll spread the ball out a little more. He will hit the 3000 yard mark, but his TD/INT ratio won’t be 23/10 as it was last year. It’ll be more like 20/16. That constitutes as a bust in my opinion. Also, Clinton Portis has to stay healthy or else Brunell will be throwing a lot more balls and he’ll pay for it.

RB: Willis McGahee
McGahee is a great running back. He’s a phenomenal athlete and could be a consistant 1500 yard rusher if he had a decent cast around him. The QB battle between Losman and Holcomb hurts the passing game; Eric Moulds is gone, the offensive line is lucky to be considered sub-average. McGahee will bust quite a few big runs this year and run for 1100-1200 yards and 8 TDs, but he’s definitely going to be earning every single yard. These numbers are good for your third string RB, but don’t expect him to be a 1500 yard, 14 TD guy. He will be gone before the later rounds because he’s getting a lot of love. Don’t be worried if someone grabs him in the third round, because he isn’t worth that high of a pick.

RB: Edgerrin James
Edge is an elite back in this league and I never give him enough credit for what he’s done. He’s a very good blocking back and you can’t argue with stats that average 1500 yards and 12 TDs per year when healthy. Edge will take a step back from his Indy days because of the offensive line (OL). You can’t compare ‘Zona’s OL to Indy’s. When you have a prolific passing game (yes, Arizona does have one of the best passing games in the league), it’s much harder to run get 350+ touches. For now, I wouldn’t rank Edge much higher than 8 or 9 on my running back list, as he’ll probably disappoint you. Also, what happens when if Warner gets hurt and Leinart has to lead the offense mid-year?

WR: Santana Moss
Moss is a fantastic receiver; however, he’ll be sharing catches with a much larger crew this year. Washington just acquired Brandon Llloyd and Antwaan Randle El will definitely get their fair share of the offense. Moss won’t reach that near 1500 yard, 9 TD performance he had last year, but should be in the 1200 yard, 7 TD ballpark. Solid #2 fantasy WR numbers.

As well, TE Chris Cooley caught 71 balls last year (for 774 yards and 7 TDs)... was he on your fantasy charts? Don’t look for a repeat from Cooley, but 55 grabs for 575 yards and 5 TDs should be in order. Cooley will be another fantasy “bust” who won’t match his last year totals. Cooley’s last year totals were close to Jeremy Shockey - type numbers. Pick Cooley up on your second pass for TEs.

WR: Joe Horn
Horn is 34 years old and definitely had his problems last year (amid his constant complaining, is his heart still in the game?). In 2004 he had a 94 catch, 1399 yard, 11 TD year. Those are amazing numbers, but look as his last season pile…49 grabs for 650 yards and 1 TD over 13 games. Yeah, Aaron Brooks was throwing the ball, but Drew Brees won’t be getting Horn the long ball and Horn won’t be shaking defenders out of their shoes taking them for a huge gain. Horn will be lucky to see 900 yards this season with 4 scores.

TE: Chris Cooley
See “WR: Santana Moss” above.

TE: Marcus Pollard
Pollard led the Lions in receptions last season; however, don’t expect him to come close to matching those numbers this year. Pollard is in a Mike Martz offense, which doesn’t cater to TEs. Besides, Dan Campbell was brought in to help with the run blocking and Martz likes Casey Fitzsimmons more than Pollard, judging from where Pollard is playing in practices and preseason games. Martz has also been rumored to have moved Pollard to the H-back position, which will limit his production. Oh, and I forgot to add; Roy Williams, Corey Bradford, Mike Williams, Kevin Jones, Arlen Harris and Brian Calhoun will all be competing for catches.

Looking for Sleepers?

QB: Jake Delhomme
Jake Delhomme is arguably the most underrated Fantasy QB. Look at his stats over the past three years as the starting QB for the Panthers. 3219, 3886, and 3421 passing yards with 19, 29, and 24 passing TDs, respectively. In addition to the stellar Steve Smith, the cats picked up Keyshawn Johnson, who will definitely get his fair share of grabs this year. Delhomme also has a healthier backfield now that Stephen Davis has been replaced with DeAngelo Williams. It’s amazing how a guy like Delhomme will still be there in round 6 or 7 and should be the in 3700 yards and 27 TD range.

QB: Kurt Warner
Former MVP who many people claim was anointed the MVP simply because of his cast around him (Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Martz, etc). Look at his team this year; a should-be much improved defense, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Edgerrin James, a TE with threatening potential in Pope, etc). Warner was having a very good year last year until his groin injury, which should be the only thing keeping players from drafting Warner in the top 10 QBs. If he stays healthy, he could have a monster year…in the area of 3600 yards and 27 TDs...though watch out for his TD/INT ratio, as it could be up more than anyone would like. He will be had in the later rounds (after Round 6 or so and will be one of the biggest depth steals of the draft.

RB: Corey Dillon
The Pats did draft Maroney to replace Dillon, but Dillon still has enough left in the tank to run for 1200 yards and 13 or 14 TDs. Maroney, as a rookie, won’t replace Dillon this year. Dillon ran for 733 yards and 12 TDs last season, when missing six games due to injury. Dillon is dropping to the later rounds and could end up being a steal if snagged in the 6th or 7th rounds. The Pats’ OL is always good (ala Denver) and should provide for more of a run game since weapons such as David Givens were lost in the passing game. The Pats’ also have a schedule that caters to their run game (Bills twice, Jets twice, Titans, Texans, Lions, and Packers).

RB: Mike Bell
So, Shanahan is starting an URFA named Mike Bell. Bell, not having played a down in the NFL is supposed to be the starter for the “RB factory of the NFL.” Bell couldn’t have asked for a better situation. Bell is a talented back and is guaranteed at least 1000 yards and 8 TDs as long as he remains starting. At 220 pounds, Bell will get his fair share of red zone plays. However, don’t expect Bell to be a #1 or #2 RB on your fantasy team, but draft him simply for depth.

On another note, this doesn’t bode well for Ron Dayne, so you may want to rethink drafting Dayne any higher than your late, late, late rounds.

RB: Frank Gore
Frank Gore is running behind a newly revamped OL (Jennings, Allen, Newberry, Baas, and Harris). While Alex Smith is expected to start at QB, Trent Dilfer is a steady backup. Gore has much more potential than Kevan Barlow and should benefit from an improved passing game (Antonio Bryant added, Vernon Davis added, and Eric Johnson is back). Gore had 608 yards last year with 3 TDs and his role should dramatically increase this year. While Gore’s TD numbers may not be in the same ballpark as a Shaun Alexander, Gore will still get his share of attempts at the end zone. A year with 1000 yards and 7 or 8 TDs wouldn’t be far fetched with the beefier OL and added passing game weapons.

WR: Derrick Mason
I expected Mason to have a solid, 1100 yard season last year and I was disappointed. Then again, what can you expect with Kyle Boller at the helm? When McNair signed with Baltimore, Mason shot up my fantasy charts. Mason could be a top 10 fantasy WR simply because of McNair. McNair loves throwing to him (just look at the stats when they were Titans) and he’ll definitely get the chance to. Defenses have to worry about a solid run game (Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson) as well as some nice weapons in the passing game (Clayton, Heap, and Mason), as well as a QB who can still make things happen with his feet. Mason is quick and can still get open. He could have a great year with numbers around 1100 yards and 7 or 8 TDs.

WR: Lee Evans
Evans could be a legit starting fantasy WR as long as Losman is the QB. It was seen at the end of last season when Evans became Losman’s favorite target. Remember the 117 yard, 3 TD performance against Miami last season? Losman loves to throw to him, especially on long tosses for 30+ yards. However, word out of Bills camp is Holcomb being the guy…so don’t draft Evans any higher than round 6 just yet. He’ll put up decent numbers this year, but his potential to grab 80+ balls is much higher with Losman at the helm.

Going out on a limb here and saying:
with Holcomb – 1050 yards with 5 or 6 TDs
with Losman – 1300 yards and 9 TDs

WR: Reggie Brown
Reggie Brown? I’ve never been a fan of this guy, but it’s easy to see that Philly has nobody else to catch balls outside of Westbrook. Someone has to catch what McNabb throws; and he will throw for 3200+ yards. Brown wasn’t a flop in his rookie year and is sure to be much better. Brown is easily the best WR in Philly and could easily go for 1000 yards and 7 TDs. These aren’t bad numbers for a guy that can be had in later rounds.

WR: Reche Caldwell
Caldwell has been handed a starting spot in New England. Starting WR for the Patriots + Tom Brady as your QB = fantasy sleeper. Deion Branch will get his 80 grabs and potentially 1100 yards, but I don’t see him going over that. Brady loves to spread the ball out and Caldwell can get open. It wouldn’t be hard for Caldwell to have a breakout season since his highest yardage total has been 350 yards. Caldwell could see anywhere around 900-1000 yards for 5 scores. He’ll be a nice pickup as a #3 and someone you’re sure to be able to snag off the waiver wire (I just did).

TE: Heath Miller
Say what you will, but Heath could be a top 5 TE this year. Big Ben doesn’t have The Bus or Randell El at his disposal anymore. I expect the passing game, while still a power run team, will be relied upon more than in the past. Losing The Bus hurts this team in the red zone, so I expect Miller to pick up the slack in the red zone passing game. He put up 39 grabs for 459 yards and 6 TDs. 22 of those 39 grabs were for first downs. Big Ben knows Miller is a guy he can go to and won’t hesitate to offer him a red zone TD. Realistic numbers for Miller are in the area of 55 grabs for 700 yards and 10 TDs.

TE: Zach Hilton
Drew Brees loves throwing to his TE (see Antonio Gates and his ridiculous stats over the past few years). Zach Hilton is a young, talented TE who will benefit from Brees’ inability to throw a nice deep ball. Brees will have defenders always keeping an eye on Reggie Bush and Deuce McAlister, leaving Zach Hilton nice lanes over the middle to catch a lot of balls. Hilton could see 550 yards and 4 or 5 scores this season as long as he remains the starter, which shouldn’t be hard to do. Nice late round, backup TE steal.

Need Rehab?

Injuries are a part of football and can quickly derail a teams aspirations for the season. Same can be said for your fantasy football team. In some cases they can help as well - just ask anyone who picked up Larry Johnson last season when Priest Holmes went down. Players who are coming off injury are a risky proposition, but they can also come at a cheaper price when drafted in terms of value. Lets take a look at a number of players recovering from injuries heading into the 2006 season. We look at some of the bigger names and more serious injuries in more detail first.

Carson Palmer
QB - Bengals
Injury: torn ACL and MCL in left knee

Comments: Palmer was a top flight FF quarterback in 2006 and then the devastating injury on the first series in the Bengals first playoff game against the Steelers. Palmer also suffered a dislocated patellar or kneecap and had some cartilage damage - ouch! The ACL injury alone has about a nine month recovery period putting him healthy sometime in October although the Bengals are saying he will be ready for the opener. Expect his mobility to be limited, but his upside is so high he is still worth of a high pick.

Dante Culpepper
QB - Dolphins
Injury: torn ACL, PCL, and MCL in right knee

Comments: Without Randy Moss in Vikings land Culpepper was struggling greatly before the injury in November. Dante had successful surgery to repair all three torn ligaments later that moth. Culpepper should be back by the season opener but won't be close to 100% until the end of the season. For a player who relies so much on his scrambling ability, this is of concern. In addition, Culpepper is learning a new offense and Miami had enough concern to sign former Lions QB Joey Harrington as a Plan B. Unless you can get Culpepper late in the draft, let someone else take the risk.

Drew Brees
QB - Saints
Injury: torn Labrin or should socket cartilage

Comments: In the final regular season game for the Chargers Brees tore up his should diving for a touchdown - bad break. Shoulders are very difficult to recover from - just ask Chad Pennington. Brees was throwing shortly after the draft, but he will still struggle with the passes that require arm strength once the season rolls around. The Saints were confident enough to sign Brees as a free agent, or was it the Chargers who weren't confident enough that they decided to let him go? Like Culpepper, besides recovering Brees is also learning a new offense so let someone else grab him in your league.

Ben Rothlisberger
QB - Steelers
Injury: head injuries and bruised ego

Comments: Wear your helmet stupid - what else can you say to the SuperBowl winning quarterback? He is scheduled to be ready for the Steelers exhibition opener and his injuries do not look to change his 2006 production output much if at all. Still Big Ben looks more suited for a number two quarterback in FF than the go to guy under center for most teams while playing in Cowher's run oriented offense.

Ahman Green
RB - Packers
Injury: ruptured right quadriceps tendon

Comments: This type of injury generall takes as long to recover as a torn ACL. Since his surgery was last October he looks like he should be close to fully recovered by Green Bays season opener. He could be recovering through much of training camp and with two rookie guards possibly starting and competition from Najeh Davenport and Samkon Gado he looks like a risk. At 29, Green is close to the age that most running backs start to decline and considering his very heavy workloads in the past that could catch up with him as well.

Duece McAllister
RB - Saints
Injury: torn ACL

Comments: The Duece had his ACL surgery last November and should be ready to put on his pads in September. But New Orleans used their top pick on a guy named Reggie Bush so expect the Saints to ease McAllister back into the lineup. With Bush in the picture be very cautious with McAllister.

DeShaun Foster
RB - Panthers
Injury: broken ankle

Comments: Foster broke his ankle in the playoffs. A broken ankle often heels quicker than a severe sprain so he should be back to 100%. Then again DeShaun is always injured and the Panthers took DeAngelo Williams in the draft and he will get his fair share of carries even when Foster is healthy.

Braylon Edwards
WR - Browns
Injury: torn ACL

Comments: The former University of Michigan standout tore his right ACL in December of his rookie season and had surgery in early 2006. Look for him to return some point after the season begins and to still be recovering once he does. He will miss a good portion of his speed when he first returns.

Kellen Winslow
TE - Browns
Injury: you name it

Comments: Big Ben isn't the only one coming back from a motorcyle accident. Remember the guy the Lions let the Browns pick when they moved down one spot and took Roy Williams? He's back. Winslow suffered a multitude of injuries while showing off on his bike including a torn ACL, fracture right femer, lacerated kidney and lacerated liver. How is that for fun. He is probably off most guys radar and could be worth a look late in the draft along with a lot of other young talented tight ends in this years FF draft.

OTHER NOTEABLE BUT LESS SERIOUS 2005 INJURIES:

Kevin Barlow - RB 49ers - Knee
Mark Bradley - WR Bears - Knee/ACL
Kerry Colbert - WR Panthers - Ankle
Ronald Curry - WR Raiders - Achilles
Najeh Davenport - RB Packers - Ankle
Dominick Davis - RB Texans - Knee
Frank Gore - RB 49ers - Shoulder
Darrell Jackson - WR Seahawks - Knee
Rudi Johnson - RB Bengals - Knee
Brandon Jones - WR Titans - Knee/ACL
Curtis Martin - RB Jets - Knee
Chris Perry - RB Bengals - Knee
Todd Pinkston - WR Eagles - Knee/ACL
Donte Stallworth - WR Saints - Shoulder
Troy Williamson - WR Vikings - Hip