Monday, September 17, 2007

Uh oh, guys to be worried about after wk 2

photoJust two weeks into the NFL season and some fantasy footgball owners are starting to worry, and for good reason. Some of the highest picks in the draft are starting to look like busts. Teams can't afford to miss with the second or third overall picks, and some teams might have just done that.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Stats: 118 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards, 0 TD, 2 fumbles
Panic Meter: 5 out of 10
Reason for concern: The loss of left tackle Orlando Pace really hurts the consensus number two overall pick in the fantasy football draft. This doens't help QB Marc Bulger either. The Rams, usually a top ten offense, are ranked 18th and lead the league with five lost fumbles and just 29 total points.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
Stats: 98 rushing yards, 76 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Panic Meter: 6 out of 10
Reason for concern: The Chiefs look grounded on offense. The third overall pick in most drafts is the focus of opposing defenses giving LJ no room to run. The 28th ranked offense in the league have scored just one TD in two games under QB Damon Huard and are averaging just 13 points per game. TE Tony Gonzalez is also struggling to put up points.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
Stats: 65 rushing yards, 76 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Panic Meter: 9 out of 10
Reason for concern: The Dolphins also look horrible on offense and have been the worst rushing team through two weeks averaging just 63.5 yards per game on the ground. Trent Green's four picks against the Cowboys don't help matters.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints
Stats: 65 rushing yards, 50 receiving yards, 0 TD
Panic Meter: 7 out of 10
Reason for concern: Is there a bigger surprise than the Saints lack of offense this year? Bush had a bad yards per carrry average last year and that was on a good offensive team.

Running back honorable mention:
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars), Duece McAllister (Saints), Injured - Brandon Jacobs (Giants)

Drew Brees, QB, Saints
Stats: 452 passing yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 1 Fumble
Panic Meter: 8 out of 10
Reason for concern: Did I mention something about the Saints offense? Last years passing leader was close to being the MVP last year, this year he has been anything but. Did New Orleans just over achieve last year?

Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers
Stats: 369 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 2 Fumbles
Panic Meter: 4 out of 10
Reason for concern: Rivers lacks playmaking receivers, although he does have LT and Gates as options. Don't give up on Rivers just yet as he has faced tough defenses in Chicago and New England. LT and the ground game have struggled, tied for second worst in the league, which hasn't helped the young QB get going.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers
Stats: 252 passing yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 Fumbles
Panic Meter: 6 out of 10
Reason for concern: Norv Turner left to coach the Chargers and seemed to take the niners passing offense with him. Their 31st ranked passing attack makes them just one of two teams to average under 100 passing yards per game.

JP Losman, QB, Bills
Stats: 251 passing yards, 0 TDs, a INTs
Panic Meter: 6 out of 10
Reason for concern: Dick Jaron's team has showed no offensive fire power at all. The Bills offense ended the 2006 season on a roll, a roll that is going uphill to start the 2007 season.

Steve McNair, QB, Ravens
Stats: 203 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 3 Fumbles
Panic Meter: 7y out of 10
Reason for concern: McNair isn't getting any younger and the former co-MVP of the league has taken a lot of punishment over the years that might have caught up with him.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills
Stats: 22 receiving yards
Panic Meter: 5 out of 10
Reason for concern: JP Losman is floundering and the Buffalo passing game is ranked last in the league averaging just 96.5 yards-per-game.

Non-running back honorable mention:
QB Marc Bulger (Rams), WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), TE Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), TE Alge Crumpler (Falcons), TE Vernon Davis (49ers), K Nate Keading (Chargers) Dolphins Defense, Giants Defense

Note: with the Eagles/Redskins game tonight I haven't listed any players from either team but many are on my watchlist after their opening week performance.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

In with old and the new...

photoThere is an old saying, "out with the old, in with the new." But in fantasy football, the saying might be "out with the old, out with the new." If you are over 30, nobody wants to touch you anymore. Ditto if you are a rookie. And don't forget, running backs rule fantasy football. Well throw all that out after week one in the NFL.

First, don't look for a running back among the top five or so producers. In fact, let's start with the old and the over 30 crowd...

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants, born 8/12/1977
This old reciever was a huge fantasy stud on Sunday night pulling down eight catches for 144 yards and three touchdowns. Too bad the ex-Spartan might have lost Eli Manning in the process.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys, born 12/7/1973
Last year's receiving touchdown leader (13) got off to a nice start with two in his first game as he battled the elder receiver Burress mentioned above.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants, born 2/13/1977
What does a fourth round pick nab you? How bout a 30 year old receiver who pulled in nine catches for 183 yards and a score. A fourth round pick? Sounds like cheating to me...

Now lets look at a younger crowd as some rookies didn't fare too badly themselves:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings, born 3/21/1985
Top rookie opening with 19 carries for 103 yards against the Falcons and turned a short pass into a 60 yard touchdown romp. Second best day by a running back only to LT.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills, born 4/22/1986
Rookie running back had a solid debut with 90 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions, born 9/25/1985
Second overall picked pulled in four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown.

FF Hero's week one

Outside of those listed above, other great performances included:

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: 345 passing yards, 5 TDs
Eli Manning, QB, Giants: 312 passing yards, 4 TDs
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers, 161 passing yards, 4 TDs
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Jon Kitna - 3 TDs each
Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Laverneous Coles, Drew Carter - 2 TDs each
LaDanian Tomlinson - 1 rushing and 1 passing TD
Chris Bown - 175 rushing yards
Joseph Addai 118 rushing yards and 1 TD

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Keep an eye on these guys...

photoWith your fantasy football draft now in your rear view mirror you are feeling elated or a little apprehensive about the upcoming season. Two stud running backs, a top tier quarterback, three receivers to fear, and a defense/kicker combo sure to give you an edge over the competion each week. With nearly 200 players taken in the draft only scrap heaps remain to upgrade your team. While this is true, now is the time to start building a list of players to keep an eye on as the season begins. This is a group of players flying under the radar who just might be able to contribute if the circumstances are right.

RB - At running back you want to consider who might falter due to injury or production issues and who might be there to capitalize should that occur. While injuries are nearly impossible to predict, production issues aren't. One player taken high in many drafts that just might falter is Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft had a solid rookie season with over 1,000 yards in just 13 games even with Ricky Williams in town. With Ricky smoked out of Miami last season, most figured Brown would greatly improve on his rookie stats. But Brown actually took a step back with just 907 yards and 4 touchdowns, hardly the stuff of a late first, early second round FF draft pick. Brown looked less than impressive in the preseason averaging just 3.1 yards-per-carry on 27 attempts. Could the new coaching staff in Miami be ready for a switch?

Probably not, but a running-back-by-committee approach could be in the works and the player Brown could be splitting carries with? Try Jesse Chatman. Who? Chatman is second on the depth chart to Brown and had a strong preseason averaging 6.4 yards-per-carry while scoring two touchdowns, two more times than Brown. Chatman is a journeyman who has also spent time with the Chargers and Saints. In reality this says more about Brown than Chatman, FF owners beware.

I saw a number of owners draft Denver's Mike Bell this year. Bell burst onto the scene as a rookie last year in Denver with nearly 700 yards and 8 touchdowns while teaming up with Tatum Bell who had more than a 1,000 yards and is now with Detroit. But the Broncos signed Travis Henry who is an adept "one cut" back that fits Denver's running system perfectly. Many owners think that the Broncos always utilize a RBBC approach at running back. Guess they forgot about Clinton Portis and Terrell Davis. Regardless, word out of Denver is that rookie Selvin Young (Texas) has beaten out Bell anyway to be the backup. If you want to handcuff Henry, Young would be the better choice.

QB - Most owners didn't think of drafting a Chief's quarterback with Green off to Miami and Brodie Croyle as the heir apparent. Not so fast. Herm Edwards has named Damon Huard the starter after Croyle struggled big time in the preseason. Now if you are counting on Huard to win you a championship, good luck, but if you are looking for a backup who will most likely only play in your starters bye week Huard isn't a bad option. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes and who isn't impressed by his 11 touchdowns to just one interception a year ago when filling in for Green? His 98 QB rating is probably a lot higher than most of the other backup quarterbacks in your FF league put up a year ago.

WR - Everyone is now wondering who the next Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston will be. Rookie wide receivers aren't supposed to make a big impact, let alone unheralded ones. While Lions rookie Calvin Johnson has likely been drafted, a solid season from him wouldn't be unexpected. Then there are the guys like Mike Furrey who went from being the Rams safety to leading the NFC in receptions with the Lions. Who might be candidates at the receiver spot who could surprise this year?

With Eric Parker sidelined to start the season in San Diego, keep an eye on rookie Craig Davis out of LSU. He had a solid training camp and brings the kind of deep speed the Chargers have been missing the past few seasons. He showed his potential with a 40-yard touchdown grab in San Diego's final preseason game against the 49ers and could be a nice third wide receiver option this season.

Another rookie receiver to keep an eye on is Jacoby Jones from the Houston Texans. Jones didn't get much attention coming out of Lane (yes, I said Lane) heading to the NFL. Houston has a new quarterback, Matt Shaub, and a solid receiver in Andre Johnson looking for a nice compliment. Jones had an outstanding preseason with 11 receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns.

K - Expect the Cowboys to have a solid offense this season with Tony Romo, TO, Terry Glenn, Julius Jones, and Marion Barber III. But what about the kicker? Well Martin Gramatica has been put on the IR and the winner of the kicking battle, by default, is rookie Nick Folk. Folk didn't miss a kick in the preseason and word of out Valley Ranch was he hardly ever missed a kick in practice either. So if you waited till the last round to draft a kicker and aren't happy after a week or two with their prodution check out how Folk is doing.

Even if you really like you FF team it is a good idea to have you eyes on a number of players to add throughout the season for depth purposes alone. If you can upgrade a starting spot, even better. Knowing who might be a surprise producer this year, watching the injury reports, and keeping aware of who other players are dropping (especially when bye weeks come into play) are the best ways to upgrade your team throughout the season.