I've got the #4 overall pick - now what?

The best first-round value in this years fantasy football draft is the #3 pick. It is there that you get the leftover scraps, but that is sure to be either LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, or Larry Johnson - how is that for scraps? Once those three are off the board you are down to the second tier of running backs or you can look to go with Peyton Manning. Fantasy Football is a game of stud running backs, first and foremost, so lets forget Manning. Plus, without Edge the defenses the Colts face will be able to key on the passing game more than ever. The #4 pick is simply to high for this gun slinger. So which running backs should you consider with the fourth pick? There is Tiki Barber of the Giants, Clinton Portis of the Redskins, Steven Jackson of the Rams, and the Edge himself who is now with the Cardinals. I'd throw out Edge who is with a new team that doesn't have the same firepower as the Colts and with his injury history. So lets take a peek into the first three.


Tiki Barber
New York Giants
5-10, 200 lbs
Born: 4/7/1975
NFL Experience: 10 years

Comments: Tiki did hit the dreaded 30 this April – usually a very bad thing for a RB. He did run for 1,860 yards (averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry) last year and caught over 500 yards receiving – very impressive. He also had 11 total touchdowns. Eli should be one year better which helps the whole offense and Tiki is very durable missing only 3 games the past four seasons. The big question with Tiki is certainly his age so lets take a closer look. Barber has rushed for 1,200+ yards the past four seasons, with 2006 his best year ever and 2005 his second best. There has been no drop off in production. Tiki also didn't get the wear and tear on his legs early in his career like most running backs, going for over 200 carries just once in his first five seasons in the league (213 in 2000). He certainly was fresh last season carrying a career high 357 times, tying his career high for ypc, and ripping off a career best 95-yard touchdown run. Tiki should be well set up for another great year running the ball and is fantastic as a receiver out of the backfield as well.

Clinton Portis
Washington Redskins
5-11, 212 lbs
Born: 9/1/1981
NFL Experience: 5 years

Comments: Portis is 6 years younger than Tiki and a little bigger as well. He ran for 1,516 yards (4.3 ypc) and had fewer reception yards (just over 200) than Tiki .He also had 11 touchdowns, matching Barber. He has been durable the past two years as well missing just one game after being traded to Washington from Denver for cornerback Champ Bailey. Portis has rushed for over 1,500 yard in three of his four NFL seasons, missing in his first year with the Redskins with 1,315 in 2004. Despite the age advantage, I'd give the edge to Tiki who had a better 2005 in both rushing and receiving yards. I also like Tiki's supporting cast much better with Eli leading the charge at QB rather than the aging Brunell who could be replaced by the likes of 2005 first-round draft pick Jason Campbell if Brunell falters. Cambell has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, just imagine how much defenses would be able to focus on Portis if this became a reality.

Steven Jackson
Washington Redskins
6-2, 231 lbs
Born: 7/22/1983
NFL Experience: 3 years

Comments: Jackson has both youth and size on his side. He also no longer has to worry about sharing the workload with Marshall Faulk which has always been a major concern. Jackson had his first 1,000 yard campain in 2005 with 1,046 yards (4.1 ypc). He scored eight rushing touchdowns while starting 15 games. Jackson has good hands out the backfield, adding 320 more yard and another score. Jackson is a rising star in the league and could leapfrog both Barber and Portis, but not in the FF draft until 2007. His lack of putting up the numbers of the previous two players still knocks him below them and in a battle with Edge for the next tier of running backs. He has a solid supporting cast on offense, but did lose offensive guru Mike Martz who is now serving as the OC for the Lions.

Go with Tiki if you have the fourth pick, Portis with the fifth.

Who is the #1 overall pick in 2006?

In most leagues the fantasy football emphasis is on runnin backs, so it should come as no surprise that the top overall pick is one of a select number of STUD running backs. Last year the choice likely came down between two players, LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers and Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks. Both are coming off spectacular FF seasons, yet both have some question marks heading into this season opening the door for another RB to be worthy of consideration if you have the top overall pick - Larry Johnson of the Kansas City Chiefs. Lets take a quick look at all three and why you might or might not want to consider them.

LaDainian Tomlinson
San Diego Chargers
5-10, 221 lbs
Born: 6/23/1979
NFL Experience: 6 years

Comments: LT is the most exciting running back in the pro game. He is a duel, make that a triple threat, out of the backfield with his running, catching ability, in addition to his foray into the passing game. Last season LT racked up 1,462 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns. He added another 370 yards receiving with two more scores. In addition, LT completed three of four passes, each resulting in a score. Has the perfect blend of age (27) and experience entering the 2006 season. The question mark for LT revolves around the loss of veteran quarterback Drew Brees who now makes his home in New Orleans. Enter the relatively inexperienced Phillip Rivers to take the Chargers snaps. If Rivers struggles, defenses will focus even more on LT which could result in a drop off in production.

Shaun Alexander
Seattle Seahawks
5-11, 225 lbs
Born: 8/30/1977
NFL Experience: 7 years

Comments: Alexander had a huge year, rushing for a career best 1,880 and breaking the NFL record with 27 touchdown runs in 16 starts. Alexander also helped propel his Seahawks team all the way to Super Bowl XL were they ended up losing to the Steelers in the Motor City. At 29 this season, Alexander is in his prime and has started every game the past two seasons, only missing one start in the span of the past four seasons. While his rushing totals have increased each of the past four years (1,175 in 02', 1,435 in 03', 1,696 in 04', and 1,880 in 05'), his receiving totals have gone the other way (460, 295, 170, and just 78 yards last season with just one receiving touchdown). Alexander has benefited from running behind the best OL in football, however that line took a hit this season with the free agent departure of pro bowl guard Steve Hutchinson.

Larry Johnson
Kansas City Chiefs
6-1, 230 lbs
Born: 11/19/1979
NFL Experience: 4 years

Comments: It seems strange to put a guy with just a half of season of starts in the same catergory as Tomlinson and Alexander, but Johnson exploded onto the scene last year and his numbers warrant that kind of comparison. In just nine starts Johnson amassed 1,750 rushing yards while scoring 20 touchdowns on the ground, both figures better than those of LT. He also added 343 receiving yards and antother score. It is almost scary to think what kind of FF numbers Priest Holmes former backup can do in a full season as the featured back. Of the three RBs, only Johnson's team had a head coaching change with former Jets head coach Herman Edwards taking over for the retired Dick Vermeil.

Overall: Johnson's 5.2 rushing average was only slightly better than Alexander's 5.1, both well ahead of LT's 4.3 however. Alexander had more rushing attempts than LT (370 to 339), with Johnson right behind LT (336). We know Herman Edwards will use a veteran RB (does Curtis Martin ring a bell), how much will he use Priest Holmes in KC if he is healthy? "Right now, I’m anticipating that Priest Holmes is coming back,” Edwards said last month. "I’m hoping for good reports." Those concerns don't exist for either Tomlinson or Alexander when looking at their respective teams depth charts at RB. But even with a new head coach and potential competition at his position, don't be surprised to see Larry Johnson's name the first to come of many draft boards this year, followed qucikly by LaDaninian Tomslinson and Shaun Alexander. After that expect a few veterans (Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, and Edgerrin James) to be taken followed by a few young players (Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Stephen Jackson).

We are back for the 2006 FF season!

Lionbacker will once again be publishing our Fantasy Football blog for the 2006 season. The calendar has now turned to July and it is time to start preping for your draft(s). Once again you can send your emails to Lionbacker's own fantasy football expert at ronnie@lionbacker.com. Check back on the blog as Ronnie answers the tough questions to help you win the league championship in addition to bringing you his regular weekly features like who to start and who to sit and wraps up each week with his fantasy studs and duds.

Have a great 2006 fantasy football season from the team here at Lionbacker.