DOES LUCK PLAY A ROLE IN FANTASY FOOTBALL?

Does luck play a role in fantasy football - you bet it does.

You can do all the homework you need to do.
Have the perfect draft.
Have an extensive knowledge over all aspects of the game.
Develope complex strategies.
But if luck doesn't fly your way, the results can come up just short of perfect (superbowl champion).

We had our fantasy football draft saturday and with the last draw i pulled the #1 lottery ball.
to this i say,"it's better to be lucky than good sometimes".

Playing an inside (dome) kicker over an outside kicker when the weather prohibits the outside kicker of scoring a single point isn't lucky it's doing your homework.

Luck is when your quarterback throws an interception (-2 points in our league) but gets it called back on a pass interference call; evenafter, the replay shows it was obviously a bogus call by the offical.

Being unlucky is when your runningback/widereceiver etc.. with no history of any injuries, tears their a.c.l. while falling just short of the goalline.

Having a player (with an extensive history of knee problems) tear their a.c.l. isn't unlucky it's just the law of probabilities unfortunately playing it's course.

Injuries are part of the game. Some come as a complete surprise, while others are just assumed to happen inevitably (see websters Fred Taylor).

Luck also happens when you have 5 players on the bye (misjudgement in drafting) yet the schedule gods pray on you by going against the worst team in the league and you still pull off
the victory.

Remember, you can do all right moves: that much you can control.
But the one thing you can't control is luck.

The great thing about fantasy football is on any given day, anything can happen and will.

SINCERELY, RONNIE KEESEE

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL TEAM DEFENSES

TOP 25 DEFENSES

#1 baltimore ravens
#2 pittsburgh steelers
#3 buffalo bills
#4 carolina panthers
#5 new england patriots
#6 philadelphia eagles
#7 atlanta falcons
#8 jacksonville jaguars
#9 n.y. jets
#10 dallas cowboys
#11 washington redskins
#12 san diego chargers
#13 denver broncos
#14 tampa bay buccaneers
#15 chicago bears
#16 minnesota vikings
#17 miami dolphins
#18 cincinnati bengals
#19 indianapolis colts
#20 arizona cardinals
#21 detroit lions
#22 seattle seahawks
#23 n.y. giants
#24 st. louis rams
#25 kansas city chiefs

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL TIGHTENDS

TOP 25 TIGHTENDS

#1 tony gonzalez
#2 antonio gates
#3 jason witten
#4 alge crumpler
#5 todd heap
#6 dallas clark
#7 randy mcmichael
#8 jermaine wiggins
#9 daniel graham
#10 eric johnson
#11 l.j. smith
#12 jeremy shockey
#13 bubba franks
#14 marcus pollard
#15 jeb putzier
#16 doug jolly
#17 itula mili
#18 jerramy stevens
#19 chris cooley
#20 ben watson
#21 health miller
#22 erron kinney
#23 freddie jones
#24 matt schobel
#25 boo williams

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL KICKERS

TOP 25 KICKERS

#1 adam vinatieri
#2 david akers
#3 mike vanderjagt
#4 jason elam
#5 ryan longwell
#6 matt stover
#7 sebastian janikowski
#8 jeff wilkins
#9 shayne graham
#10 josh brown
#11 nate kaeding
#12 jeff reed
#13 jason hason
#14 john carney
#15 john kasay
#16 paul edinger
#17 lawrence tynes
#18 todd peterson
#19 mike nugent
#20 neil rackers
#21 olindo mare
#22 rian lindell
#23 jay feely
#24 john hall
#25 phil dawson

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL WIDERECEIVERS

TOP 25 WIDERECEIVERS

#1 terrell owens
#2 randy moss
#3 marvin harrison
#4 torry holt
#5 chad johnson
#6 javon walker
#7 reggie wayne
#8 joe horn
#9 andre johnson
#10 nate burleson
#11 michael clayton
#12 steve smith
#13 hines ward
#14 darrell jackson
#15 laveranues coles
#16 chris chambers
#17 drew bennett
#18 derrick mason
#19 donald driver
#20 larry fitzgerald
#21 isaac bruce
#22 anquan boldin
#23 jimmy smith
#24 muhsin muhammad
#25 plaxico burress

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNINGBACKS

TOP 25 RUNNINGBACKS

#1 ladainian tomlinson
#2 priest holmes
#3 shaun alexander
#4 edgerrin james
#5 willis mcgahee
#6 domanick davis
#7 duece mcallister
#8 corey dillon
#9 jamal lewis
#10 clinton portis
#11 ahman green
#12 julius jones
#13 kevin jones
#14 rudi johnson
#15 tiki barber
#16 curtis martin
#17 steven jackson
#18 brian westbrook
#19 lamont jordan
#20 warrick dunn
#21 carnell williams
#22 de'shaun foster
#23 tatum bell (mike anderson)
#24 jj arrington
#25 fred taylor

MY TOP 25 FANTASY FOOTBALL QUARTERBACKS

TOP 24 QUARTERBACKS

#1 peyton manning
#2 daunte culpepper
#3 donovan mcnabb
#4 marc bulger
#5 trent green
#6 tom brady
#7 matt hasselbeck
#8 brett favre
#9 michael vick
#10 kerry collins
#11 aaron brooks
#12 jake delhomme
#13 jake plummer
#14 drew brees
#15 carson palmer
#16 chad pennington
#17 david carr
#18 ben roethlisberger
#19 kurt warner
#20 joey harrington
#21 byron leftwich
#22 steve mcnair
#23 drew bledsoe
#24 brian griese
#25 eli manning

STRATEGIES FOR LINE-UP SUBMISSION

THIS WEEKS TOPICS WILL COVER STRATEGIES AND LINE-UP SUBMISSION FOR EACH POSITION.

WHEN SELECTING QUARTER-BACKS MAKE SURE THEIR WIDE-RECEIVERS ARE GOOD. HAVING A GOOD QB THAT HAVE RECEIVERS THAT "COULDN'T CATCH A COLD" WON'T PRODUCE. MAKE SURE THAT THE OFFENSE CAN MOVE THE BALL. PAST STATS WILL HELP YOU SEE THE PROGRESSION OF A QB AND USUALLY WON'T FALL TOO FAR OFF THE MAP. MAKE SURE THAT WHEN YOU SELECT A BACK-UP THAT HE IS NOT ON THE SAME BYE WEEK. AVOID SELECTING A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND UNLESS IT'S ONE OF THE ELITE QB'S (PEYTON MANNING / CULPEPPER). THE FALL OFF IS SEVERE AND THE MIDDLE RANGE QB'S FROM #4 TO #20 AREN'T THAT MUCH DIFFERENT.

WHEN SELECTING RUNNING-BACKS MAKE SURE THAT THE TEAM DOES NOT EMPLOY THE DREADED RUNNING-BACK BY COMMITTEE APPROACH. AVOID ANEMIC
OFFENSES. WHENEVER POSSIBLE SELECT A RUNNIN-BACK IN THE FIRST ROUND AND ATTEMPT WHEN POSSIBLE TO SELECT 3 RB'S IN YOUR FIRST 5 PICKS.
MOST LEAGUES WILL ALLOW 3 RUNNIN-BACKS AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THAN BY ALL MEANS DO SO. WHEN SELECTING RB'S TRY TO AVOID SELECTING TOO MANY ON THE BYE WEEK ;HOWEVER, DO NOT SKIP ON AN ELITE RB BECAUSE OF THIS RULE (EXCEPTION TO THE RULE).
A COMMON RULE TO COMTEMPLATE IS IF AN ELITE RB LIKE PRIEST IS SELECTED (WHO HAS SUSTAINED SEVERAL INJURIES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS) THEN DRAFT THE BACK-UP IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE ROUNDS (LARRY JOHNSON).
IF YOU ARE STRUGGLING OVER 2 EQUAL RB'S THEN TRY TO SELECT THE ONE WHO RECEIVES THE BEST.
AGE MUST BE A CONSIDERATION. IF YOU HAVE AN AGING RB THEN THAT BACK-UP WOULD BE A NICE SELECTION.
AVOID ROOKIES EARLY IN THE DRAFT. ALTHOUGH SOME RB'S AS ROOKIES HAVE PRODUCED AT A HIGH LEVEL MOST ROOKIES EITHER DO NOT CARRY THE LOAD ENOUGH OR SIMPLY TAKE AT LEAST A YEAR TO BLOSSUM.

WHEN SELECTING A WIDE-RECEIVER AVOID FIRST ROUND PICKS UNLESS THEIR NAMES ARE T.O. AND RANDY MOSS. NEVER SELECT A WR IN THE FIRST 5 PICKS - PERIOD!!!! MAKE SURE THE WR HAS A GOOD QB. IF THAT QB LOCKS ON YOUR RECEIVER AND APPEARS TO BE THEIR FAVORITE THEN PICK AHEAD OF ONE WHO SHARES THE LOAD WITH OTHERS. ADDRESS THE STATS WHEN IT COMES TO BOTH RECEIVING YARDS AND RECEPTIONS. AVOID WR'S WHO SEEM TO DROP THE BALL TO OFTEN (KOREN ROBINSON).


NEVER SELECT A TIGHT-END IN THE FIRST 2 ROUNDS. THERE ARE A SHORT LIST OF VIABLE TE'S TO SELECT FROM. TONY GONZO / ANTONIO GATES / CRUMPLER / WITTEN TO LIST A FEW. SELECT TE'S WHO HAVE THE KNACK OF PRODUCING IN THE RED ZONE.
AVOID THE HYPE (SHOCKEY) ON CERTAIN PLAYERS - MORE MOUTH THAN PRODUCTION. IF YOUR LEAGUE DOESN'T REQUIRE A T.E. THEN SELECT A WIDE-RECEIVER 9 OUT OF 10 TIMES OVER THE T.E. IF YOU FIND YOURSELF WEAK AT THE T.E. THEN LOOK FOR MATCH-UPS DISPERAGIES.

NEVER EVER SELECT A KICKER EARLY.CERTAIN KICKER'S ARE ALWAYS
SELECTED EACH YEAR IN THE FIRST 3-4 ROUNDS AND THAT PICK JUST LEAVES ONE MORE ELITE QB/RB/WR REMAINING ON THE BOARD FOR OPPOSING OWNERS.
SELECT INSIDE(DOME) KICKERS BEFORE COLD WEATHER KICKERS. AVOID LOW OUTPUT TEAMS. AVOID KICKERS WHO ARE WEAK IN FIELD GOALS MADE. TRY TO SELECT KICKERS WHO ATTEMPT A LOT OF FG'S. LEG STRENGTH IS IMPORTANT BUT ACCURACY IS THE KEY.

SELECTING DEFENSES SHOULD BE DONE IN THE MIDDLE ROUNDS AT THE EARLIEST. STATS WILL BE PREVALENT. THE TURNOVER RATIO AND DEFENSIVE SCORING STATS WILL PROVE INVALUABLE. MATCH-UPS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR.
AVOID TEAMS THAT ALLOW TOO MANY POINTS. SELECT TEAMS THAT HOLD THE OPPONENT TO UNDER 14 POINTS WEEKLY.

SPECIAL NOTE:

DO NOT OVER STRATIGIZE.
PLAY THE ELITE PLAYERS REGARDLESS OF THE MATCH-UPS.
DO YOUR HOMEWORK.
DO NOT SECOND GUESS YOUR PICKS IF YOU HAVE DONE YOUR HOMEWORK.

MONDAY MORNING QB IS NOT AN OPTION:
SELECTING JABAR GAFFNEY WHO SCORED 2 TD'S AND 156YDS RECEIVING OVER L.TOMLINSON IS NOT AN OPTION.

GUT FEELINGS ARE OK IF THEY ARE WITHIN LEGITIMITE CONSIDERATION.

ALWAYS SELECT THE PLAYERS THAT ARE MOST CONSISTANT AND HAVE GOTTEN YOU TO THE POINT YOU ARE AT.

SELECTING RUNNING-BACKS EARLY AND MAKING THEM YOUR TEAMS STRENGTH WILL BE A GUIDE TO PROVIDING THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITITY TO SUCCEED.

BE ACTIVE IN YOUR LEAGUE. ALWAYS LOOK FOR SLEEPERS.ALWAYS PERUSE
THE WAIVER WIRE FOR HIDDEN GEMS. MAKE TRADES THAT WILL STRENGTHEN YOUR TEAM AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS.

AVOID INJURY PLAGUED PLAYERS. AVOID AGING PLAYERS.
AVOID OVER-STRATEGIZING - KEEP IT SIMPLE.

SCAN FOR INJURIES EVERYDAY. SOME PLAYERS WILL NOT PLAY, ANNOUNCEMENTS MADE JUST BEFORE KICKOFF.

HAVE FUN !!!!!!!!!


SINCERELY, RONNIE KEESEE

HOW TO PREPARE FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL

THE "HOW TO PREPARE FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL PHASE".

NOW THAT WE ARE AWARE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS AND THE BASIC CONCEPTS OF HOW TO PLAY FANTASY FOOTBALL, LET US CONTINUE TO THE NEXT PHASE.

PLAYER RANKING'S
WE FIRST NEED TO COLLECT OR COMPILE PLAYER ROSTER'S FROM EACH TEAM.
LIST THE APPARENT STARTERS FROM EACH TEAM.
IF THE TEAM HAS 2 LEGITIMITE STARTING PLAYERS AT A CERTAIN POSITION LIST BOTH.
ONCE THIS HAS BEEN DONE LIST ALL THE PLAYER'S ACCORDING TO POSITION (QB / RB ...ETC...).

YOU CAN GO TO NFL.COM / SPORTINGNEWS.COM / ESPN.COM / SPORTSLINE.COM AND SEVERAL OTHERS TO
FIND STATISTICAL DATA ON EACH PLAYER.

MAKE A LIST OF THE:

QUARTER-BACKS
PASSING YARDAGE / NUMBER OF PASSING TD'S, RUSHING TOUCH - DOWNS / INTERCEPTION'S / FUMBLES / COMPLETION PERCENTAGE.

RUNNING-BACKS
RUSHING YARDAGE / RUSHING TD'S / RECEIVING YARDS / RECEIVING TD'S / FUMBLES / YARDS PER CARRY.

WIDE-RECEIVERS / TIGHT-END
RECEIVER YARDS / RECEIVING TD'S / RUSHING YARDS /
RUSHING TD'S / FUMBLES / DROP PASSES / YARDS PER CATCH / YARDS AFTER THE CATCH.

KICKER
FIELD GOALS MADE / FIELD GOALS ATTEMPTED / MISSED FIELD GOALS (NUMBER & YARDAGES) / EXTRA POINTS MADE & MISSED.

DEFENSE (TEAM)
POINTS ALLOWED / SACKS / INTERCEPTIONS / FUMBLE RECOVERY / SAFETY / BLOCKED PUNTS / BLOCKED FIELD GOAL / BLOCKED EXTRA POINT / NUMBER OF SPECIAL TEAMS & DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS.

SCORING SYSTEM
YOU SHOULD MAKE A COPY OF THE SCORING SYSTEM FOR YOUR LEAGUE. REMEMBER, EACH LEAGUE WILL BE DIFFERENT AND ANALYZING THE SCORING SYSTEM WILL HELP YOU DETERMINE THE IMPORTANCE OF EACH POSITION. IN COMPARISON WITH THE SCORING SYSTEM THE DETERMINING FACTOR TO EITHER SELECT A CERTAIN PLAYER AT A CERTAIN SELECTION/PICK IN A DRAFT WILL BE MADE MORE CLEAR.

NOTE:
ONCE YOU HAVE RANKED EACH PLAYER ACCORDING TO POSITION, NOW YOU NEED TO RANK THE PLAYERS OVERALL.

BYE WEEKS
MAKE SURE TO ALSO HAVE A LIST OF THE BYE WEEKS. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE IMPORTANT. THE OBJECTIVE HERE IS TO NOT PUT TOO MANY EGGS IN ONE BASKET - LET ME EXPLAIN.
IF YOU HAVE TOO MANY PLAYERS ON ONE BYE WEEK IT WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY RESULT IN A LOSS. ALSO YOU WANT TO REFRAIN FROM SELECTING TOO MANY PLAYERS IN ONE POSITION ON THE BYE WEEK.

WEEK #3 STARTS THE BYE WEEKS.
TRY TO AVOID THE FOLLOWING EXAMPLE:
WEEK #3 BYE WEEK TEAMS - BALTIMORE, DETROIT, HOUSTON AND WASHINGTON.

IF YOU SELECT 3 QUARTER-BACKS: JOEY HARRINGTON, DAVID CARR AND KYLE BOLLER, WEEK #3 WILL LEAVE YOU WITHOUT A QUARTER-BACK.
WRITE DOWN EACH PLAYERS BYE WEEK NUMBER NEXT TO THEIR POSITION OF OVERALL RANKING.
BY DOING THIS IT WILL AVOID PICKING TOO MANY PLAYERS WITH THE SAME BYE WEEK.
"THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE":
IF YOU SELECT AN ELITE PLAYER, THE FACT THAT IT'S THE PLAYER'S SAME BYE WEEK WITH ANOTHER PLAYER YOU HAVE ALREADY SELECTED SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR.
THE CONSIDERATION IS WAIVED BECAUSE OF THE PLAYER'S IMPORTANCE, REGARDLESS.

WHETHER YOU GET YOUR INFORMATION FROM A FANTASY FOOTBALL BOOK OR SOME WEB SITE MAKE SURE TO USE AS MUCH DATA AS POSSIBLE TO ALLEVIATE THE BIAS OF CERTAIN PLAYERS AND ALSO GET AN OBJECTIBLE ANALYSIS.

DO NOT DRAFT TOO EARLY!!!!!
BY DRAFTING EARLY YOU WILL RISK THE CHANCE OF SELECTING A PLAYER AND THAT PLAYER SUSTAINING A SEASON ENDING INJURY BEFORE THE REGULAR SEASON BEGINS (ESPECIALLY AN ELITE FRANCHISE TYPE PLAYER).

INJURY REPORTS
MAKE SURE TO ALWAYS CHECK THE STATUS OF ANY AND ALL STARTING PLAYERS. THE INJURY REPORTS WILL SHOW YOU THE STATUS OF THE PLAYERS.
INJURY STATUS IS TERMED AS SUCH:
PROBABLE - 75% HE WILL PLAY (REALISTICALLY 90%).
QUESTIONABLE - 50% HE WILL PLAY.
DOUBTFUL - (LEAVE THE PLAYER OUT IF TERMED THIS).
OUT - SELF EXPLAINATORY.

ADVICE: MAKE SURE TO WATCH THE PRE-GAME INJURY TICKER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN TO ALLOW FOR THE UPDATES. SOMETIMES THEY REVEAL INJURIES OR SUDDEN ILLNESSES THAT WOULD BE OTHERWISE UNKNOWN.

NEXT ARTICLE WILL DEAL WITH SOME FANTASY FOOTBALL STRATEGIES AND ADDRESS LINE-UP SUBMISSIONS. WE WILL ALSO NOTE SOME COMMON MISTAKES AND MISNOMERS.

SINCERELY, RONNIE KEESEE

FANTASY FOOTBALL 101

DO YOU HEAR IT CALLING YOU?

It's that time of year again.
What am I talking about?
Fantasy football of course.
It's drraft is second only to the NFL's draft.

Could you ever imagine 10 years ago the incredible interest and expansion of fantasy football? It has become a billion dollar industry.

IN the upcoming weeks we will discuss several topics about fantasy football. Topics will range from the basic format of how it's played (perspective for the novice) to the so-called expert's strategies. We will compile top rankings from each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K and D). We will also list a top-100 overall.

We will employ strategy for drafting players & line-up sumbmissions.
We will show you common mistakes and misnomers.
We will show you how to arrange cheat sheets.
We will give you the basic tools needed to develop the winning edge necessary by each owner not only to play, but to excel at a high level against admirable competition.
We will discuss sleeper's, no-brainers and last but not least those whom you should stay far way from.

I often get asked by novice enthusiast, how does it work? They want to play, but have no earthly idea the format or structure of how the game of fantasy football is played.

So to begin I say, let's go over the basics.

1A - each league has their own format and their own set of rules governing their league.

1B - each league usually has either 8, 10, or 12 teams in the leauge.

1C - each league has it's own commissioner to establish rules and structure.

1D - most leagues use computer web sites for their league operations.

1E - depending on the league's web site, trades, transactions (pickups/drops/insured reserve moves are all part of the options available for each owner).

We will use an example league so as to illustrate to the novice just how fantasy football can be played.

The league will have a league name titled to it.

This example leagule has 10 owners/GMs.

The league is divided into 2 divisions (East & West) - 5 teams in each.

A schedule is made automatically to show each owner who they will play each week throught the season.

Players fill the rosters by having a league draft.

Order of the draft can be as easy as a draw or some returning leagues start with the worst team in the previous season selecting first and the first team selecting last and then snake (flip-flop each round). Some draw for each round.

Team rosters consist of 15 players:
3 QB (quarterbacks)
4 RB (running backs)
4 WR (side receivers)
2 K (kickers)
2 D (defensive teams)

Starting lineups require seven players:

1 QB (example: Peyton Manning)

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any combination of 4 players as follows:

3 RB (example: Ahman Green, Kevin Jones, Tiki Barber)
1 WR/TE (example: Terrell Owens/Tony Gonzalez)

"OR"

3 WR and 1 RB

"OR"

2 RB and 2 WR

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1 K (example: Jason Hanson)

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1 D (example: Baltimore Ravens)

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Note: All leagues will be different is some aspect or another, but the basic priciples are still the same.

The league in question plays head-to-head. Meaning, that each team/owner will play another team/owner for win and loss configuration.

How do you determine wins and losses? It's the points. These points are tabulated by a scoring system adopted by each league. The points are obtained by the players performance.

Example: LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for 163 yards, scores 3 TDs while receiving for 49 yards.

General scoring base would give at least:
16 points for 160 yards rushing (1 point for every 10 yards rushing)
12 points for 2 TD's (6 points each) and 4 points for 48 yards receiving (1 point for every 10 yards receiving)
TOTAL = 32 PTS

When scores are tallied up for all 7 starters, the total against their opponents total determines who wins or loses.

After 14 games are played the regular season ends and the playoff begin.

4 teams make the playoffs, 2 division winners and the teams with the best records remaining. The teams in the playoffs are given rankins or seeded to determine who plays who.

The winners of each semifinal play for the fantasy football championship.

The winners name is placed on a trophy for the ultimate bragging rights.

Soon to come: How to prepare for the draft!

Sincerly,
Ronnie Keesee

Welcome to the Lionbacker Fantasy Football Blog

By Paul Donaghy
LIONBACKER

Welcome to Lionbacker's Fantasy Football blog, the first blog for Lionbacker. Ronnie Keesee, Lionbacker's fantasy football expert will be bringing you exciting fantasy news and opinions throughout the season.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?